Generative AI expected to grow, not shrink, headcount, say polls from major firms

While discourse often centers around the risk of AI eliminating jobs, recent data shows that at least some leaders expect they will actually be growing their headcount as they implement the technology in their organizations. 

A recent Deloitte poll of 2,000 director-to-C-suite level professionals found, among other data points, that 39% of respondents predict they will increase headcount to implement their generative AI strategies at least slightly, versus the 22% who say they will expect to reduce headcount. 

These figures differ based on respondents’ self-reported expertise with AI, with those who have more expertise generally expecting more headcount changes, either positively or negatively. Of those who say they are very proficient with AI, 45% predict their organization’s headcount will increase and 23% say it will decrease. Over half (57%) of those with the least expertise, meanwhile, generally expected things to remain the same; in contrast, only 28% of those with high reported expertise believe the same. 

These predictions are part of the overall anticipation that generative AI will change talent strategies. The poll found that three-quarters (75%) of the respondents expect this shift to happen within two years. Only 16% thought it would take longer than that, and 18% say they are making such changes now. As for what changes are expected, the most commonly cited at 48% was “redesigning work processes to take advantage of generative AI,” followed by “designing and implementing upskilling and reskilling strategies” at 47%. 

“These survey results suggest a strong need for more attention paid to generative AI’s talent impacts,” said the Deloitte report. “In the near term, AI education and fluency will be especially important to fostering adoption and overcoming initial resistance to change. In the longer term, upskilling or reskilling and redesigning work processes and career paths will likely be essential for capturing generative AI’s full value and positioning workers for future success.”

This data is similar to that found in another recent survey from EY, which polled more than 250 leaders in the technology industry. It found that half of technology business leaders (50%) say they anticipate both layoffs and hiring at their company in the next six months as a result of AI adoption. More granularly, the data shows that 20% of the tech leaders surveyed said they anticipate layoffs and 27% said they anticipate hiring over the next six months. However, three out of five technology leaders (61%) say emerging technology has made it more challenging for their company to source top technology talent.

They are also working hard on upskilling talent. Over three in four technology business leaders (76%) say they have implemented internal technical certification to help employees keep pace with rapidly changing GenAI. Further, more than half (51%) say they have put external technical certification in place at their company to help keep pace with rapidly changing GenAI. Finally, nearly two-thirds of technology business leaders (64%) say their company has put internal development programs in place to help employees keep pace with rapidly changing GenAI.

“One thing is certain: Companies are reshaping their workforce to be more AI savvy,” said EY technology, media and telecom AI leader Vamsi Duvvuri. “With this transition, we can anticipate a continuous cycle of strategic workforce realignment, characterized by simultaneous layoffs and hiring, and not necessarily in equal volumes. But it’s not all doom and gloom. Employees and companies alike continue to show enthusiasm around AI, specifically when it comes to opportunities to scale and compete more effectively in the marketplace.”

This upskilling, reskilling and shifts to talent strategy are due at least in part to the technical skills and knowledge needed to successfully implement generative AI solutions in an organization. Getting value from generative AI is not always easy. Indeed, another poll from RSM found that while many are using AI in their workplace, a majority say implementing the technology has been harder than expected. 

The poll, which included 510 middle-market decision makers in the U.S. and Canada, indicated a great deal of enthusiasm for AI. It found 78% of middle-market organizations are adopting AI, with 77% adopting generative AI in particular. With this enthusiasm has come investment: 89% of executive respondents reported their organizations plan to boost their budgets around AI technologies and 74% are focusing their dollars specifically on generative AI. 

Yet, 54% of respondents report that generative AI has been harder to implement than they expected. Further, 67% say they need outside help to get the most out of their generative AI solutions. 

“AI and generative AI are making significant impacts to our industry — perhaps more than any previous technology,” said Sergio de la Fe, enterprise digital leader and partner with RSM. “Our survey underscores the necessity for middle-market organizations to develop a comprehensive AI strategy that encompasses the entire value chain. Considering the complexity of AI technologies, it’s no surprise that roughly two-thirds (67%) of middle-market leaders surveyed recognize the need for external assistance to fully capitalize on the advantages of their selected AI solutions.” 

Concerns

All three surveys named largely similar concerns regarding AI that give pause to even enthusiastic adopters. The concerns include opacity of the models and their decision-making process, outputs that may not be entirely trustworthy, potential data leaks and cybersecurity attacks, as well as ethical and legal considerations. 

Another recent report from CPA.com, though, found accounting leaders are largely unperturbed. It found that 68% of accounting leaders have confidence in their organization’s responsible use of AI. This is in contrast to their subordinates, who aren’t as confident in their leaders: Only 29%  of front-line employees believe their employers have sufficient measures to ensure that AI is used responsibly. 

“Organizations will not be able to enjoy the full benefits of AI if it is not considered a safe and trustworthy tool,” said the CPA.com report. “… Failure to use AI responsibly could result in financial penalties under new regulations as well as reputational damage.”