With Vance, Trump is doubling down on Maga

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If there were any doubts that Donald Trump would go full “America First” he banished them on Monday with his vice-presidential pick. JD Vance is the most high-profile Trumpian cheerleader among senior Republicans.

Trump could have held his nose and chosen Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor, who gave him the biggest run for his money in the Republican primaries. Haley is a relative moderate on abortion. Selecting her, or a like-minded figure, would have signalled that he wanted to broaden his appeal to wavering suburban female Republicans.

Vance, by contrast, is an unapologetic Christian conservative. If Joe Biden can find a silver lining in the gathering storm clouds, Vance would be it. Biden’s vice-president, Kamala Harris, is an effective campaigner on a woman’s right to choose. 

Opting for Vance is thus a sign that Trump is feeling very bullish. Vice-presidential picks rarely have a discernible impact on election outcomes. But they signal what the nominee is thinking. Biden chose the youngish mixed-race Harris in 2020 to balance the fact that he was an elderly white male. Trump, by contrast, is so confident of his party’s support that he chose the closest thing to a mini-me he could find.

Much will be made of the fact that Vance used to be a never-Trumper. In 2016 he told a former college roommate that Trump could be the “American Hitler”. Trumpism was “cultural heroin” to blue-collar America, he said. Democrats will try to make hay with Vance’s erstwhile loathing for his new boss.

It is ironic that Vance was at the forefront of those accusing Biden of having incited the attempted assassination of Trump this past Saturday. Unlike Vance, Biden has never likened Trump to Hitler. It is not hard to depict Vance as a rank opportunist who saw obeisance to Trump as the only path forward in today’s Republican party. There are also Vance’s close ties to Silicon Valley money. His 2022 Ohio Senate campaign was largely funded by Peter Thiel, the west coast venture capitalist and early Trump adopter. Vance’s selection was greeted enthusiastically by Elon Musk, a friend of Thiel, who only endorsed Trump two days earlier following his near miss in Pennsylvania.

It would be a negligent Democratic campaign that did not exploit the tension between Vance’s blue-collar roots, which are genuine, and his plutocratic sponsors.

But Vance is no pushover. Irrespective of his U-turn on Trump, he is an intelligent and forceful exponent of Trumpism. At 39, he can also claim to be its future. No Republican senator has done as much to sell the Heritage Foundation-organised Project 2025, which fleshes out Trumpism in great detail. Vance ticks all the boxes. He is a Christian nationalist, a critic of globalisation, a deep sceptic of Nato, and a believer in the existence of the deep state, which he wants to dismantle. Haley does not fit any of those criteria.

His elevation may turn out to be helpful to Harris if she can exploit his record of supporting a national abortion ban. It would also be good news for Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Vance has consistently opposed providing further US military aid to Ukraine. But he goes much further than that. He is an avowed fan of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and a darling of that transatlantic far-right circuit.

In picking Vance, Trump is signalling two things. First he expects to win in November. Second, he wants to put the full Maga agenda into practice. Democrats will focus on Vance’s weaknesses and career opportunism, as they should. But they should also take note of Trump’s remarkable sense of confidence. It is not clear that it is misplaced.

edward.luce@ft.com