what do we know so far?

With less than 50 days to go until November’s US presidential election, a likely second assassination attempt against Donald Trump has injected fresh uncertainty into the race for the White House and raised serious questions about the threats faced by the former Republican president and his Democratic opponent, vice-president Kamala Harris.

Here is what we know so far — and what Sunday’s security incident in West Palm Beach, Florida, could mean for both candidates.

What has the investigation uncovered?

The FBI said on Sunday that it was investigating “what appear[ed] to be” an assassination attempt on Trump after a Secret Service agent saw a rifle poking through a fence at the Trump International Golf Club on Sunday afternoon.

Law enforcement officials found an AK-47 style rifle with a scope, two backpacks and a GoPro camera in the foliage surrounding the golf course, and later detained a suspect, named by US media outlets as Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, of Hawaii.

Trump was unharmed in the incident. But it puts the former president’s security under scrutiny just two months after a would-be assassin narrowly missed killing him at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.

The FBI is leading the federal investigation into what took place in the latest incident, but Florida’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, has said the state would also conduct its own investigation.

Routh made his first court appearance in the district court for the southern district of Florida on Monday morning and was charged by federal prosecutors with possession of a firearm by a convicted felon and possession and receipt of a firearm with an obliterated serial number.

If found guilty, he faces a maximum penalty of 20 years’ imprisonment and fines of up to $500,000.

Did the Secret Service fail to protect Trump?

The US Secret Service, the federal law enforcement agency tasked with protecting current and former presidents as well as other top political leaders, came under intense scrutiny earlier this year after the shooter’s bullet in Butler narrowly missed Trump’s skull.

The agency’s director, Kimberly Cheatle, eventually resigned, accepting responsibility for its failure to prevent the attack — the first attempted assassination of a current or former US president in decades.

Now, the Secret Service will once again be facing tough questions about how a potential shooter was able to get so close to the former president. Ric Bradshaw, Palm Beach county sheriff, told reporters on Sunday that the suspect had likely been between 300 and 500 yards, or roughly 275 to 450 metres, from Trump.

US President Joe Biden told reporters at the White House on Monday morning that the “Service needs more help”. “I think Congress should respond to their need,” he added, suggesting that lawmakers should appropriate more funding to help the security services beef up their resources.

In a post on his Truth Social platform late Sunday, Trump praised the Secret Service, saying: “THE JOB DONE WAS ABSOLUTELY OUTSTANDING.”

Who is to blame for the incident?

Law enforcement officials have not speculated on the suspect’s motives. But in an interview with Fox News Digital on Monday morning, Trump was quick to blame his political opponents, saying Biden’s and Harris’s “rhetoric” was fuelling the violence against him.

“He believed the rhetoric of Biden and Harris, and he acted on it,” Trump said of Sunday’s gunman. “Their rhetoric is causing me to be shot at, when I am the one who is going to save the country, and they are the ones that are destroying the country — both from the inside and out.”

“They use highly inflammatory language,” he added, in reference to Democratic politicians. “I can use it too — far better than they can — but I don’t.” 

Trump is no stranger to personal attacks against his political rivals, entire ethnic groups, and even influential individuals such as musician Taylor Swift who publicly criticise him. He also played a role in fomenting the January 6 attack on the US Capitol in 2021, and many Democrats and even some Republicans blame him for fostering a toxic US political climate.

Sunday was not the first time Trump blamed Democrats for threats on his life. In the presidential debate with Harris last week, Trump said: “I probably took a bullet to the head because of the things they say about me.”

But even in the case of the shooter in Pennsylvania, there was no clear motive. He was killed by law enforcement on the spot but was a registered Republican at the time and had searched the internet for images and public appearances of Trump, Biden and other public figures in the run-up to the shooting.

Is Trump still under threat?

Law enforcement officials were keen to reassure people on Sunday that there was no immediate threat to the former president or the general public. But Trump remains a target for both domestic and foreign actors.

Prior to the shooting in Butler, the Secret Service had increased security around the former president, after US officials received information about a specific threat from Iran.

Trump and former officials from his administration, including former secretary of state Mike Pompeo and former national security adviser John Bolton, have faced an increased threat from Iran since the killing of former Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Qasem Soleimani in January 2020.

There are no indications that the incident in West Palm Beach had anything to do with Iran or any foreign actor. But it will increase concerns about the risks faced by Trump and Harris in the final stretch of the campaign.

What does it mean for the race for the White House?

The incident on Sunday gave Trump an instant opportunity to reset his campaign’s message after a difficult stretch in which he has struggled to recalibrate his campaign after Biden stepped out of the race.

The Republican nominee has been mostly on the defensive since a poor performance against Harris in their only televised debate last Tuesday in Pennsylvania. He is also facing concerns from his allies that he is veering off course by airing conspiracy theories about immigrants and associating with far-right influencers.

In the wake of the apparent assassination plot, Republicans rushed to his defence to cast Trump as a political hero willing to sacrifice his own safety for a bigger cause. Shortly after the event, his campaign also launched a fresh fundraising drive.

There is no sign of a pause in the campaigning as a result of the incident, although the Democrats may have to tone down some of their attacks against Trump for a period.

In a statement late on Sunday, Harris said she was “deeply disturbed” by the events earlier that day and said “we all must do our part to ensure that this incident does not lead to more violence”. She is going ahead with a planned trip to Pennsylvania on Tuesday, when Trump is due in Michigan.

After it emerged that Routh, the alleged gunman, had been active in trying to recruit foreign fighters to Ukraine in recent years, the incident could reignite the political debate around the war with Russia. But for now both campaigns are simply adjusting to the latest twist in an already dramatic race for the White House.