Republicans win control of Senate ahead of critical tax fight

Republicans won control of the Senate amid a slew of victories by allies of Donald Trump, giving the GOP powerful leverage in high-stakes tax and spending battles next year.

The GOP defeated Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown in Ohio, fended off an unexpectedly tough challenge to Nebraska’ Deb Fischer and picked up the open Senate seat in West Virginia, giving them at least 51 seats in the 100-member Senate. That means Republicans’ will have final say in the next president’s executive and judicial nominations.

Republican control of the Senate, projected by the Associated Press, likely dashes progressives’ hopes of dramatically shifting the burden of U.S. taxation toward corporations and wealthy individuals as trillions of dollars worth of provisions in the 2017 tax law expire at the end of next year.

The growing prospect of a Trump presidential victory triggered a sharp selloff in the bond market, with traders speculating that his tax-cut and tariff policies would fan inflation pressures and keep interest rates elevated.

Any new tax law would need approval from the GOP-led Senate. But the balance of power going into the fight over how to handle tax cuts’ expiration still depends on which party controls the presidency and U.S. House.

The Senate results come as the White House and control of the House are still too close to call. Competitive Senate races in Montana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada have not yet been called.  

Democrats went into the election with a slender Senate majority and had to defend far more seats than the GOP in this election cycle, including three states won twice by Trump and several more he took in 2016. Only a third of the Senate is up for reelection because members serve six-year terms.

Democrats’ hopes of upsets in Texas and Florida were quickly dashed as Republican incumbents Ted Cruz and Rick Scott won reelection. Democrats did, however, manage to fend off a challenge in Maryland from former Republican Governor Larry Hogan with a victory by Angela Alsobrooks.

Republicans campaigned to oust Democrats by castigating them for surges in the cost of living and illegal border crossings under President Joe Biden.

The Democratic Senate was crucial to passing Biden’s agenda in the first two years of his administration, including trillions of dollars in stimulus spending and investments in semiconductor manufacturing, infrastructure and his signature climate law. 

Deeply split

Republicans have said they intend to chip away at Biden’s climate law, roll back regulations on energy production, strengthen the U.S. border with Mexico and extend Trump’s 2017 tax breaks.

The party, however, is deeply split over the budget and foreign policy issues, including funding for Ukraine. Those divisions, and the Senate’s filibuster rule requiring 60 votes to advance most legislation, will require working with minority Democrats.

Mitch McConnell, who set the record for the longest-serving Senate party leader, has said he will step down from his leadership post. Republicans aspiring for his job include McConnell’s No. 2 — John Thune of South Dakota — and John Cornyn of Texas. 

Both men have at times criticized Trump and backed aid for Ukraine. That leaves room for a potential challenger better aligned with Trump, such as Florida’s Scott.