On Thursday, BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said that modelling by the lobby group, combined with predictions from 52 chief financial officers, had led it to forecast much higher food price inflation in the latter half of the year.
“As retailers battle the £7bn of increased costs in 2025 from the Budget, including higher employer National Insurance, National Living Wage, and new packaging levies, there is little hope of prices going anywhere but up,” she said.
The lobby group said food price inflation in December was running at 1.8%, which was its lowest rate since November 2021.
The BRC uses a different basket of goods to measure inflation compared to official figures from the Office for National Statistics, but they are broadly similar.
In the run-up to Christmas, prices went down in shops overall, but this was due to non-food goods deflation, BRC said.
The pace of price rises for fresh food such as fruit and vegetables went up 1.2%, while inflation for store cupboard goods was 2.8%.
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