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European capitals are rushing to co-ordinate a response to a US-Russian peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, which officials have warned would mean Kyiv’s “capitulation” to Moscow’s demands.
Washington is pressing Ukraine to accept a 28-point peace plan drafted by aides to US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that calls for Kyiv to cede swaths of land currently under its control.
It contains further major concessions to Moscow, including banning any future Ukrainian membership in Nato.
The plan, and the scale of US pressure on Ukraine, has blindsided European leaders and their national security teams, who on Friday were rushing to devise a coherent response to Washington, people involved in the frantic diplomatic talks told the Financial Times.
“We’re all still analysing it but it’s moving much faster than we had realised,” one of the people said. “It basically means capitulation [to Moscow].”
Three senior European officials said they were still unsure as to whether Trump completely supported the plan or if it was subject to internal disagreement within his administration.
“We’re back to square one,” said another senior European official, referring to widespread fears at the start of this year that Trump would force Kyiv to accept Russia’s peace demands or lose US military support.
The European rearguard effort to slow or block the US-Russian proposal has been complicated by the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and the UK travelling to South Africa for the G20 summit this weekend.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer were due to hold a call to discuss the plan at 1pm Johannesburg time on Friday, said people briefed on the situation.
Officials said plans were also under way for a crisis meeting on Saturday of European leaders present in Johannesburg for the gathering.
António Costa, the EU Council president who represents the EU’s 27 leaders, said that the EU “has not been communicated any [peace] plans in an official manner”.
The US embassy in Kyiv has summoned European envoys in the Ukrainian capital for a briefing on the plan on Friday afternoon with US secretary of the army Daniel Driscoll. Driscoll met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday to lay out the proposal.
The panic among European capitals resembled previous episodes earlier this year in which the Trump administration made proposals to Ukraine without consulting or notifying European partners.
“The Europeans had become incredibly complacent in their dealings with the Trump administration,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director at Eurasia Group. “This latest plan is a timely reminder that there are very powerful forces within the administration that continue to prioritise Russia over transatlantic relations.”
Another senior European diplomat said: “We are assessing. The main thing is to remain cool and work for a more reasonable outcome.”
Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president, said on Friday that she would “discuss the situation both with European leaders and with other leaders here at the sidelines of the G20”.
“Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” von der Leyen said, repeating the EU’s long-standing position on peace negotiations.
In addition to the demand for Ukraine to relinquish control over territory that it currently controls, European officials were most alarmed by the proposal banning Nato forces from being stationed in Ukraine and its call for $100bn of frozen Russian sovereign assets to be deployed into reconstruction projects that would earn profits for the US.
European defence stocks, which have soared this year as the continent has stepped up its spending commitments, dropped sharply on Friday morning. The Stoxx 600 aerospace and defence index fell 2.6 per cent.
Shares in Renk Group sank 8.2 per cent, Rheinmetall dropped 5.7 per cent and Hensoldt fell 5.2 per cent in morning trading in Europe.
The price of oil also dropped, with the international benchmark Brent crude down 1.2 per cent to $62.64 a barrel. Gas prices fell, with futures on the European benchmark TTF down 0.8 per cent to €30.48 per megawatt hour.
Rustem Umerov, secretary of Ukraine’s national security and defence council, on Friday denied reports that he had agreed to parts of the proposal and secured a change to a section that had called for an audit of international aid to Kyiv.
“We are carefully studying all the partners’ proposals, expecting the same respectful attitude towards the Ukrainian position,” Umerov said.
“We are thoughtfully processing the partners’ proposals within the framework of Ukraine’s unchanging principles — sovereignty, people’s security and a just peace.”
Additional reporting by Ben Hall, Emily Herbert and Anna Gross
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