Author
David Pokima
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Bitcoin is trading in a tight $86,500–$90,000 band on December 31, with spot BTC at $88,700 (+0.9% in 24 hours) according to Coinbase and CoinMarketCap data, after failing several times this week to hold above $90,000.
The latest rejection near $90,000 followed a brief short-covering spike above $89,000 on Dec. 30, rather than fresh long demand.
Holiday-thinned books amplify every order. U.S. trading venues show 24-hour BTC spot volume near $34 billion, down from peaks above $70 billion around the October 6 all‑time high of $126,279, a period that also saw the October 10 liquidation shock wipe out heavily margined longs.
Additionally, funding rates and open interest have stayed muted since that October wipeout, and December has delivered more range trading than trend.
ETF Flows and Market Sentiment
ETF flows line up with the price action, as a CoinShares report noted that digital asset products saw $446 million in outflows in the week to December 29, with Bitcoin products losing $443 million and total post‑October 10 outflows hitting $3.2 billion.
Daily U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF prints from Farside and secondary aggregators show a $19.3 million net outflow on December 29, followed by a $355 million net inflow on December 31 that broke a seven‑day outflow streak, with BlackRock’s IBIT adding $143.8 million and ARKB adding $109.6 million. Although flows flickered back to positive, it still wasn’t enough to push BTC through the $90,000 wall.
Macro desks also saw holiday effects. CoinShares noted that ETF trading volumes fell to $24 billion in the late‑November Thanksgiving week versus $56 billion the week before, and similar liquidity compression has appeared across BTC spot and derivatives into New Year’s Eve.
Other risk assets have also shown the same pattern, with EUR/USD stuck and digital-asset indices logging drawdowns of more than 22% in Q4 as December’s “Santa rally” fizzled.
Outlook and Market Positioning
The holiday tape tells you more than the candles. BTC holding $86,500–$90,000 with compressed realized volatility, persistent but moderating ETF outflows, and one strong daily ETF inflow print into year-end sets up a clean positioning reset for January.
Desks that de-risked after the October liquidation shock now face a market where spot is 30% below the $126,279 high, realized vol is dampened, and ETF channels have still attracted tens of billions in 2025 despite recent weekly outflows, which creates room for re‑risking if January flows flip decisively positive.
The practical read for traders: respect $86,500–$90,000 as the holiday range, watch U.S. ETF flow tapes and derivatives basis once full liquidity returns next week, and size with the assumption that the first real break of this band in normal liquidity will set the tone for Q1 risk across crypto books.
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