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During the filming of the original Star Wars, Harrison Ford complained to George Lucas that “you can type this stuff, but you can’t say it”, though he used a stronger form of words. Politics is like the film industry in many ways but particularly in this: just as the journey from script to screen imposes limitations of its own, so too does the transition from opposition party to government.
That goes some way to explaining why political parties that are well-run all start to sound like one another. Even if they disagree sharply on solutions, they will be talking about the same set of problems because they are trying to govern the same country.
As Lucas later demonstrated, if you are powerful enough then eventually people have to say what you want them to. But parties that are powerless and whose prospect of ever achieving power appears consistently remote are incentivised to say some incredibly silly things.
In the UK, for the first decade of the 21st century, this role was filled admirably by the Liberal Democrats, the country’s third party. The Lib Dems enjoyed remarkable growth, in large part by making promises that no minor party would ever be able to keep in office, including a multibillion-pound pledge to scrap tuition fees.
But the party’s unexpected entry into a coalition government in 2010, coupled with the election of a more serious leader, forced it, at least for a time, to focus on whether it could keep its promises. Nick Clegg took the Lib Dems into coalition and implemented most of their manifesto, but was doomed by the inability to deliver on some of the party’s wilder promises.
The Liberal Democrats’ entry into a coalition with the Conservatives, and Clegg’s decision to turn them from spectators on the sidelines into a serious party, was such a big shock to the British that political scientists have likened its effect on the UK electorate to the financial crisis. But the Lib Dems are by no means alone in toggling between silliness and seriousness.
Disillusionment with the Liberal Democrats’ record in government meant that some of their traditional anti-system vote, previously concentrated in a party of respectable centrists, ended up finding a more destructive home in the pro-Brexit Ukip, while other disgruntled Lib Dem members ended up voting for Jeremy Corbyn to become Labour leader.
Within the Conservative party, rightwingers such as Liz Truss were able to cultivate a following and rise up the ranks by promising to deliver the undeliverable once freed from the yoke of coalition with the Lib Dems. When Truss eventually tried to do just that after becoming prime minister, the results were catastrophic — for her party and the country.
In winner-takes-all electoral systems, such as the UK’s antiquated first past the post, the defeated are heavily incentivised to take ridiculous positions. Liberal Democrat success in by-elections not only boosts party morale — it also aids Ed Davey, the current leader, in his efforts to keep his party anchored to reality and good sense. As for the Conservatives, Rishi Sunak’s major rivals are better off promising tax cuts, which are popular with the party membership, and opposing reductions in spending, which are unpopular with voters, because, for the moment, there is no danger that they will have to implement either.
One reason why, just as with Labour after 2010, the Conservative party is likely to get a lot less serious if it loses the next election is that it will no longer feel the constraint of government. Tories will be able to promise tax cuts without having to think seriously about interest rates or public spending. They will be able to pledge reductions in immigration without worrying about labour markets. Nor is the pull to silliness confined to the right of the Conservative party or the left of the Labour party.
Both Sunak and Labour leader Keir Starmer will go into the next election talking about how little they will spend, how reluctant they will be to tax more and how much they believe they can accomplish without more spending increases or higher taxes. Neither man is being wholly serious.
Whoever wins is likely to find himself in the same position as Clegg once did: celebrating a success, but also having to make up for the years of silly promises and undeliverable pledges. It has taken the loss of the country’s EU membership and eight years of chaos for voters to open their hearts to the Liberal Democrats again. Starmer and Sunak need to take great care, unless their own silly promises leave them facing an even worse situation than the one Clegg found himself in in 2015 — and without the promise of a job at Meta to follow.
stephen.bush@ft.com
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