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Intense diplomatic efforts to dissuade Donald Trump from striking Iran, including communication between the Islamic republic and the US administration, have de-escalated tensions in the Gulf, according to three people close to Arab governments.
Regional states including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Oman and Egypt have been urging restraint on the Trump administration, warning of the potential damage to Iran’s neighbours in the event of a US strike on the Iranian regime, including higher global oil and gas prices.
“Things have de-escalated for now,” said one Arab official. “The US is giving time for talks with Iran and to see where they go from here.”
Communication between the US and the Islamic republic allowed Iranian officials to assure Trump that there would be no executions of protesters and the death toll was not as high as was being reported outside the country.
The official said hopes were now growing that the communication between Tehran and Washington, some of which may have been assisted by a third party such as Russia or Oman, could develop into further talks in the coming days.
Tensions had soared over the past couple of days after Trump on Tuesday suggested US action against the regime by posting on social media that “HELP IS ON ITS WAY” as Iranian demonstrators faced a harsh crackdown by the regime.
Amnesty International said the Iranian authorities had committed “mass unlawful killings on an unprecedented scale” to crush the mostly peaceful protests that broke out in late December, with the death toll rising to 2,000 by “official admission”.
On Wednesday, personnel and aircraft were withdrawn from Al Udeid air base in Qatar, the US regional military command that hosts around 10,000 troops, fuelling speculation of an imminent US strike on Tehran.
Later in the day, Trump said he had received assurances that Iran had stopped killing protesters and there were no plans for executions.
“We’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping, and it’s stopped. It’s stopping, and there’s no plan for executions, or an execution,” Trump said in the Oval Office. He did not specify the source of his information.
His statement caused global oil prices to fall as traders became less concerned about the potential for military action constraining Iranian production or Iranian retaliation against export supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The USS Lincoln carrier group is heading to the region from the Indian Ocean, according to a diplomat and satellite analysis by Ollie Ballinger, a geocomputation lecturer at University College London.
It is unclear whether the apparent deployment was a prelude to a strike or meant to confuse Iran, the diplomat said.
While the US is weighing the effectiveness of possible strikes, military options remained on the table, said one of the people.
“Trump is ready to pull the trigger and claim the de-escalation a bluff,” the person said.
But the US president wanted a “snappy, defined outcome”, as achieved by his military intervention in Venezuela.
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