The average perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current role was lost fell to 43.1% in December 2025, a 4.2% drop from the year before, according to recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
It marks a record low since the surveys started tracking the data back in 2013, and the report notes that several demographics are driving rock-bottom employment expectations.
The country’s lowest earners making less than six figures, those without college diplomas, and perhaps surprisingly, baby boomers over the age of 60—on the edge of retirement—have the lowest confidence in the job hunt right now.
All workers are worried—even professionals with a steady job think they’re about to get laid off
“Americans don’t feel like the current job market is working for them,” Daniel Zhao, chief economist at employment site Glassdoor, tells Fortune. “Workers on the lower end of the income spectrum or without a college degree are often more susceptible to the swings of the business cycle, so it’s natural for them to be more concerned about signs of an economic slowdown.”
Even professionals holding down a gig worry they’re on shaky ground. The perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next year increased to 15.2%, up 1.4% from the year before, according to the report. But many don’t envision their exit to be voluntary: the expected quit rate over the next twelve months decreased, whittling down to 17.5%.
“Generally, workers are anxious about job security as they see prominent layoffs in the headlines and hear from their laid-off friends who are having trouble getting back into work,” Zhao explains.
“Even workers who are currently employed feel stuck in their jobs as the current job market limits their ability to find a better job and leverage to get a raise or promotion internally.”
Why baby boomers are the most worried about the job market
Americans aged 60 and older only have a perceived probability of 33% in finding a new job if they lost their current role—almost 10% lower than the national average. However, AI automation likely isn’t the culprit of their employment demise. The Glassdoor chief economist points to the fact that baby boomers are on the brink of retirement, and are being waved aside for opportunities based on their age.
Workers aged 65 and over have seen labor force participation, employment and unemployment all decline, but some of this may be due to workers aging out of being able to work rather than a reflection of their financial situation,” Zhao says.
Baby boomers are right to be concerned about their job prospects in the event of a layoff—their fears have been confirmed as true. Among U.S. citizens between the ages of 50 and 65, 14% were laid off once in the past 10 years, with 4% fired more than once, according to a 2025 WSJ analysis of a Boston College Retirement Study. Yet of those Gen Xers and baby boomers who experienced layoffs at least once, 24% were not able to find a new job.
Older generations also have to sift through job boards much longer to finally land a gig. While Gen Z and millennials aged between 25 and 34 were typically unemployed for an average of 19 weeks, Gen Xers and baby boomers aged 55 to 64 who were unemployed for 26 weeks, according to the WSJ analysis from last year. And even when older generations manage to score a job, 11% were forced to take a pay cut.
Due to ageism and the expectation they’ll retire soon, baby boomers are also being passed up on powerful promotions and bigger paychecks. About 22% of employees 40 and up say their workplaces skip over older workers for challenging assignments, and 16% say they’ve witnessed a pattern of being passed over for promotions in favor of younger staffers, according to a 2024 study from Resume Now.
Even more eyebrow-raising is the fact that they’re not paid for their worth: around 49% of older staffers said they make less money than their Gen Z and young millennial colleagues for doing the same job.
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