The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will be a major player in determining the country’s future as President Donald Trump seeks regime change in Iran, and the vast military-industrial complex it has built is critical to its power.
Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike over the weekend, the IRGC has emerged as a potential source of new leadership. It’s also carrying out Iran’s military response to U.S. attacks by firing missiles at commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing ship traffic to come to a virtual stop in the narrow waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil passes.
As he plots an endgame, Trump appealed directly to the IRGC and other components of Iran’s security apparatus during his video address early Saturday, telling members they will receive immunity if they lay down their arms.
The IRGC began as a paramilitary force after the 1979 revolution to ensure the regime’s political power by enforcing Islamist ideology and cracking down on dissent.
It’s comprised of military units that run parallel to, but outside of, Iran’s conventional forces. Over the years, the IRGC also developed a diversified business empire that helps finance the regime as well as its own military and ideological agenda. That empire includes core industrial sectors like oil and transportation as well as banking, telecommunications, agriculture, medicine, and real estate.
The IRGC uses affiliates to engage in business activities. For example, the Khatam al-Anbiya engineering firm has built refineries, a railway line, a dam, and a natural gas pipeline. It also controls Tehran’s international airport.
Another pillar of the IRGC’s business empire is its network of “foundations” that essentially form semi-private monopolies, though they began as organizations to advance religious and revolutionary goals.
“However, over time, wealth accumulation in the service of a wider range of ruling elite objectives, such as self-enrichment, political control, regime survival, and social engineering, became an end in itself,” the Clingendael think tank said in an October report. “What began as vehicles for social justice evolved into corporate-style conglomerates that were shielded from oversight and yet central to the power base of the revolutionary state.”
These IRGC-affiliated foundations are so vast that Clingendael estimated they accounted for more than half of Iran’s GDP in 2013.
While Iran has previously attempted to liberalize its economy and weaken the IRGC’s grip, it has instead consolidated control. That’s due, in part, to Western sanctions that blocked efforts to try to integrate Iran with the rest of the global economy.
As the U.S. and other governments sought to rein in Iran’s nuclear program by sanctioning oil and other areas of the economy, the IRGC used it as an opportunity to expand under the guise of “economic resistance” and “self-reliance,” according to Clingendael.
With the West tightening the screws on the Iranian economy, the IRGC engaged in covert and illegal activities, such as using cryptocurrencies and shipping oil to evade sanctions.
The IRGC is also involved in smuggling alcohol, narcotics, weapons, and tobacco, among other products, according to a 2024 report from the defense intelligence firm Janes.
But Iran’s economy has been in shambles, even before the latest U.S. strikes, as multiple crises have created turmoil.
The currency lost 60% of its value after Iran and Israel fought a 12-day war in June, inflation spiked, chronic energy shortages forced blackouts, and a historic drought has depleted water supplies.
The collapse of the currency sparked widespread protests in late December and early January, prompting the regime—with the help of the IRGC—to massacre thousands of Iranians. Trump vowed to come to their aid, eventually leading up to the current U.S.-Israel bombing campaign.
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