AICPA sees rebound in economic optimism in Q1

Business executives who are also CPAs are feeling more upbeat about the overall U.S. economy this year and their own companies, according to a new survey.

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The first-quarter AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey, released Thursday, polled a group of 236 CPAs and Chartered Global Management Accountant designation holders in leadership positions, such as CFO or controller. These executives continued to cite domestic economic conditions as their top concern, followed by employee and benefits costs and the costs of materials, supplies and equipment. Inflation concerns retracted during the quarter, although the survey concluded before the recent activity in the Middle East.

The survey found 39% of business executives polled indicated they were optimistic about the U.S. economy’s outlook over the next 12 months, rebounding from 28% in the past quarter. Domestic economic conditions stayed in the top spot, while employee and benefits costs and materials/supplies/equipment costs each rose two spots (No. 2 and No. 3) respectively. Inflation, the No. 2 top concern last quarter, slid to the middle of the list (No. 5).

Executives’ outlook for their own companies’ prospects improved in Q1, rising six percentage points from 41% in Q4 to 47% in Q1. Plans for business expansion also increased, with 55% of executives expecting growth this quarter compared to 48% last quarter.

“Business leaders are feeling a renewed sense of optimism this quarter, both about the U.S. economy and the near‑term prospects for their own organizations. While economic conditions, workforce costs, and input prices remain key areas of focus, we’re encouraged to see inflation pressures easing earlier in the quarter,” said Tom Hood, executive vice president of business engagement and growth at the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, the alliance formed by AICPA and CIMA, in a statement Thursday. “That said, we’re mindful that recent geopolitical developments could affect inflation trends, and we’re watching those dynamics closely. Even with this uncertainty, the steady rise in company outlooks and expansion plans shows that executives are positioning their businesses for growth. With disciplined planning and continued investment in talent and innovation, we believe there is real opportunity ahead to build resilience and outperform in the coming year.”

The survey also found that the number of business executives who expect a recession by the end of this year decreased heavily from 52% to 36%. The overall hiring picture remains largely similar to the fourth quarter of last year, with 56% in Q1 of 2026 (compared to 53% in Q4 on 2025) of business executives saying they have the right number of employees and 31%  in Q1 (32% in Q4) noting too few.

Entry-level hiring according to business executives also remained flat at 57% showing no change. Only 19% reported an increase in entry-level hiring for the quarter, with business growth and the need for AI skills cited as the primary drivers.

Profit and revenue growth both rebounded slightly among the respondents. Projected revenue growth for the next 12 months is now expected to be 2.9% in Q1 of 2026 (up from 2% in Q4 in 2025) and profit expectations are now projected to be at 1.6% this quarter (up from 0.8% in Q4).

Sentiment on the global economy also became more positive this quarter, rising from 22% in Q4 to 25% in Q1, quarter over quarter.