The Nordics and Canada are finding common cause

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How should European companies think about decoupling themselves from a less dependable US?

It is a scary topic for most businesses. So wide and broad are the dependencies on American technology and finance that it can be painful to think about. “My board asked me to look into how we could de-risk, and in most cases the honest answer was to say we couldn’t,” says one European financial chief executive.

But one country closer to the US is making a pitch for partnerships with European countries and companies, arguing it is suffering what they will soon. That country is Canada, which under Prime Minister Mark Carney is trying to create some kind of middle powers alliance, capable of standing up to the US as well as the more usual foes of China and Russia.

Canadian ministers are increasingly common sights in Europe, to the extent that one Nordic minister, only half jokingly, says: “They should join the EU.”

Nowhere has their attention been focused more than on the Nordic countries, owing to shared business links and a combined focus on the growing importance of the Arctic and security matters — alongside questions about the commitment of the US to all of them. That in turn raises the prospect of Canadian-Nordic tie-ups as a test case for other European companies and countries as they try to wean themselves off a more unpredictable US under President Donald Trump.

“We can’t publicly say we’re worried about the US. But it makes sense for us to look to strengthen bonds with existing allies — the Nordic-Baltics, UK and Germany in security, for instance. Canada could be interesting for business and trade,” says another Nordic minister.

That is what Mélanie Joly, Canada’s industry minister, was hoping to tap into on a recent visit to Norway, shortly after visiting the annual gathering of German industry at the Hannover trade fair.

There are already some links between the Nordics and her country. Sweden’s Saab takes a Bombardier aircraft from Canada and adds its own defence radar, sensors and command and control systems to make the GlobalEye, currently the leading surveillance aircraft on the market. Canada is currently deciding between the GlobalEye and two American rival offerings in what could be a contract worth about C$5bn.

The Swedish defence company has also suggested that it could build its Gripen fighter jets in Canada, just as Ottawa debates its dependence on the rival US F-35s.

There are further defence possibilities. A joint German-Norwegian submarine — developed for both countries’ navies by Germany’s Thyssenkrupp and Norway’s Kongsberg — is under consideration by Canada. Space is another area of co-operation with the Nordics, with both Sweden and Norway trying to start commercial launches. Joly says other areas of mutual interest include advanced manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, life sciences, energy and AI.

The Arctic is also an important arena for more tie-ups across the Atlantic amid shared concern about Russia and China’s interests in the region. Joly and her Norwegian counterpart last month signed a statement backing an “ambitious plan to develop a joint research agenda to advance understanding of the Arctic”.

Trump’s repeated forays into claiming Greenland have caused the other non-Russian Arctic nations to seek comfort and shelter together, and infrastructure executives expect business opportunities to flow as well.

All this stems, according to Joly, from Canada’s current “over-dependency on the US” and its need to tackle that. She argues that the intense trade pressure Canada is feeling from the US on industries like cars is likely to be soon felt across Europe, borne out by Trump’s recent threat to increase tariffs on European autos.

For all the Canadian-Nordic bonhomie, there are still issues, not least the distance. A Canadian chief executive says: “The Nordics are natural partners. I feel at home here. But the US is so much nearer, the pull is there, and I just don’t know how much I really want to invest here.”

For European companies pondering their reliance on what appears to be a less trustworthy US, difficult questions are likely about many of their potential new partners, especially as China flexes its muscles. Canada could be a tempting option.

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