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Ahmed Barakat
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Bitcoin News: BTC price touched $67,217 on Monday before retreating to $66,500 on Tuesday, a 0.3% gain over 24 hours that badly underperforms the macro relief it was handed.
The Iran deal optimism that pushed the S&P 500 up 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 up 3.1% produced a fraction of the crypto response it implied, and the gap between equity movement and BTC price action tells the real story.
The thesis is straightforward: traders are not selling the Iran narrative; they simply are not buying it yet. With two prior ceasefire rallies already round-tripped this year, the market is demanding the June 19 Switzerland signing before pricing anything as durable.
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Bitcoin News: Why BTC Price Isn’t Moving Like a Risk Asset
President Trump and Vice President JD Vance signed an electronic memorandum of understanding with Iran on Monday, and Trump confirmed the Strait of Hormuz, already partially open, will fully reopen Friday.
Brent crude slipped below $80 a barrel on the news, its sharpest single-day decline in more than two weeks. Risk assets responded: Asian equities jumped more than 3%, and US equities rallied hard.
Bitcoin’s response was muted by comparison. Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of Axis, framed it precisely: “Oil dropped more than 4% and Asian equities jumped more than 3% on the ceasefire, but BTC barely budged.”
Xue described the move as “a relief move that the market hasn’t fully bought yet, rather than clear risk-on redeployment into Bitcoin.”
The deeper analysis of what the Hormuz peace plan actually signals for Bitcoin’s risk regime supports that read: the transmission from geopolitical relief to sustained crypto demand requires structural confirmation that is not yet present.
The hesitation has a specific history. Bitcoin round-tripped the relief rally after the April ceasefire and again after the June 9 strikes collapsed.
This is the third truce attempt, and Trump added a live condition on Monday: the deal may be called off if Iran refuses to shut down its nuclear program. The market is not ignoring the headline – it is discounting its durability.
ETF Outflows and the Missing Institutional Bid
The demand structure underneath this bounce is weak. US spot bitcoin ETF outflows ran for four straight weeks, totaling approximately $5.4 billion, including a record single week of nearly $3.4 billion.
That streak only just paused, the marginal institutional buyer has not clearly returned, and the profit taking visible in Monday’s overnight session reflects that. There is no deep institutional bid absorbing supply on the way up.
One counterweight: coins continue moving off exchanges into cold storage at a steady rate, tightening the available float if demand does return. That is a structural positive, but it is a supply-side development, not a demand signal.
Ethereum and Solana are outperforming on the day, ETH up 2.8% to $1,784 and 5.8% on the week, SOL up 4.4% to $75.
The ETH bounce following the Hormuz deal reflects selective risk appetite rather than a uniform crypto rally; the altcoin outperformance implies rotation rather than broad institutional re-entry into Bitcoin specifically.
XRP and HYPE both gained 3.2% and 6.3% respectively, reinforcing that the move is wider but shallower than it looks in Bitcoin news terms.
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