Justin, a Chinese PhD student at an Ivy League university, had always planned to settle in the US but the 25-year-old is abandoning the idea after a crackdown on immigrants and academia and is considering studying elsewhere.
This week, Washington told US embassies to suspend the visa approval process for foreign students pending additional screening of their social media activities.
Marco Rubio, secretary of state, then pledged to “aggressively revoke” Chinese student visas, especially those studying in “critical fields” or linked to the Communist party.
Rubio’s comments are part of measures against foreign academia and students, particularly those from China, that analysts say is eroding America’s reputation there as a safe destination for overseas study and leading many to consider backup plans in other countries.
“If the government sets such a precedent . . . allowing xenophobic sentiments to go unchecked, there will inevitably come a time when large-scale anti-Chinese incidents occur,” said Justin, who requested that only his first name be used.
He added he was considering applying to Oxford and Cambridge universities in the UK as a “Plan B”. “The US is no longer an ideal place for scientific research,” he said.
The number of Chinese students at US universities has fallen sharply since the Covid-19 pandemic, in part because of initiatives including the now-defunct “China Initiative” that targeted alleged espionage in academia during the first Trump administration.
Last year, the Chinese student intake in the US totalled more than 277,000, down 4 per cent from a year earlier and 26 per cent from nearly 373,000 in 2019-20. The total number of international students in the US hit an all-time high last year of 1.1mn.
The industry is facing structural challenges, said Julian Fisher, co-founder of Venture Education, a Beijing-based market intelligence consultancy.
Not only are mainland Chinese parents becoming more discerning, increasingly opting only for the top-ranked institutions, there is more competition from institutions in Hong Kong and Singapore. China’s demographic decline also meant that the pool of customers was set to fall, he said.
“Perhaps the bigger existential question here is if we have already passed the apex of Chinese students studying overseas,” Fisher said, adding that the Trump administration’s policies could speed up the trend.
Since the latest measures were announced, interest for “study abroad in the US” on Chinese search engine Baidu has dropped to 65 per cent of what it was a year earlier, according to analysis by Venture Education using data from Baidu Index.
Australia appears to be the most popular followed by Singapore and the UK, the analysis suggested.
Frida Cai, head of business development at Ivyray Edu, an education consultancy, said some clients were considering alternatives such as the UK, Hong Kong or Australia. Ivyray Edu advises those applying for a US visa to be cautious about what they post online.
President Donald Trump’s policies have led to a “lack of confidence among parents” in Hong Kong, said Will Kwong, managing director of AAS Education, a consultancy.
“Unless the students have family links in the US, the overall market appetite has dropped significantly,” he said. Kwong was helping students come up with “Plan Bs” that include the UK and Australia.
Interest among Hong Kong students in the US had in any case plummeted in recent months to about one-quarter of pre-pandemic levels, he said, with those interested in technology, AI, aerospace and engineering often avoiding the US.
Beijing has described the US policies as evidence of the “hypocrisy” underlying Washington’s “long-touted claims of freedom and openness”.
“It will only further damage the United States’ international image and national credibility,” the foreign ministry said of Rubio’s threat.
These comments highlight President Xi Jinping’s efforts to tout China’s authoritarian system as a viable development model for other countries as Beijing seeks to attract more overseas students from the developing world.
On Chinese social media, students have voiced their anger and confusion.
One student set to begin a masters in design at Harvard this year described how her study visa was initially approved by the US embassy in Beijing last week. The following day she received an email saying it had been refused because Harvard had lost its Student and Exchange Visitor Program certification. When a judge blocked the ban, it was later issued.
“Am I worried?” the student, who did not want to be identified, told the Financial Times. “Yes of course. There’s a new policy every other day; it’s quite unpredictable.” For those looking to study overseas next year, she said: “I’d suggest to them to have backup plans.”
Still, at the US embassy in Beijing this week, some students, whose visa interviews had been scheduled before the latest suspension, were cautiously optimistic about going to the US.
One Chinese student who identified himself only as Austin said he was returning to New York University to complete a masters programme in computer engineering. “The resources and the teachers are great at NYU,” Austin said.
He said, however, that, while in the US, he always carried his passport with him in case immigration officers stopped him on the street. Deportation or visa revocations were always a risk, he said.
“I think more of these things definitely will happen under Trump,” he said.
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