BusinessPostCorner.com
No Result
View All Result
Wednesday, June 18, 2025
  • Home
  • Business
  • Finance
  • Accounting
  • Tax
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • Crypto News
  • Human Resources
BusinessPostCorner.com
  • Home
  • Business
  • Finance
  • Accounting
  • Tax
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • Crypto News
  • Human Resources
No Result
View All Result
BusinessPostCorner.com
No Result
View All Result

French markets rally may prove rose-tinted

July 1, 2024
in Finance
Reading Time: 3 mins read
A A
0
French markets rally may prove rose-tinted
ShareShareShareShareShare

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

Bank investors have fair cause to fear an outsized role for Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National in France’s next government. They put those concerns aside on Monday. Even though RN came top in the first-round election with 33.2 per cent of the vote and was first place in an estimated 296 constituencies, markets responded by pushing shares higher, led by Société Générale and Crédit Agricole.

The relief rally was driven by investors betting that the chances of RN winning an outright majority are diminished and a hung parliament may be more likely. They should still proceed with caution.

France is already under the gaze of the European Commission, along with others including Italy, for its large budget deficit. A RN majority would probably push the deficit higher, with short-term promises to raise public spending. That could mean tighter financial conditions for French businesses at a time when interest rates are supposed to be falling. Longer term, Le Pen’s party plans to undo deeply unpopular reforms to public pensions put in place by President Emmanuel Macron. Even without a parliamentary majority, those demands may continue to put pressure on government bond prices.

Just how optimistic Monday’s rally appears will become clearer as efforts to present a united “front républicain” to counter RN proceed. Turnout and the degree of fragmentation in first-round voting both add to the uncertainty. With turnout in the first round at 66 per cent, the highest since the 1990s, there are an unusually large number of third-place candidates going into second-round voting. 

As it stands, as many as 300 out of 504 seats could be in a three-way run-off in the second round. RN needs to win about 250 of those to get an absolute majority. 

Leftwingers in third place have largely agreed to drop out of the next round in order to consolidate the anti-RN vote. Macron’s alliance has made a less explicit guarantee to drop third-place candidates where it feels it can.

The strength of the front républicain will dictate the outcome of the second round. But assumptions that centrists will shift to the left if presented with just two candidates “may be overblown”, warns Andrea Filtri of Mediobanca, reducing the predictability of the second round. On the other hand, assuming that left-wing voters will converge their vote to the centre makes some sense.

Expectations of a hung parliament might then be over-optimistic. That could leave the price rally in French markets with nowhere to go but down.

andrew.whiffin@ft.com

Credit: Source link

ShareTweetSendPinShare
Previous Post

Canada’s WestJet reaches deal to end mechanics union strike

Next Post

Integrating AI for Competitive Advantage

Next Post
Integrating AI for Competitive Advantage

Integrating AI for Competitive Advantage

IBM says CEOs want to fill unknown AI roles. Here’s advice for HR

IBM says CEOs want to fill unknown AI roles. Here’s advice for HR

June 17, 2025
What’s new in the Senate version of Trump’s tax bill

What’s new in the Senate version of Trump’s tax bill

June 17, 2025
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Veteran Trader Peter Brandt Warns of “Hidden” Collapse for BTC – Here’s Why

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Veteran Trader Peter Brandt Warns of “Hidden” Collapse for BTC – Here’s Why

June 12, 2025
XRP Price Prediction: Ripple CEO Garlinghouse Says XRP Could Power  Trillion in SWIFT Transfers – ,000 XRP Possible?

XRP Price Prediction: Ripple CEO Garlinghouse Says XRP Could Power $21 Trillion in SWIFT Transfers – $1,000 XRP Possible?

June 12, 2025
ISSB standards adopted more widely across globe

ISSB standards adopted more widely across globe

June 12, 2025
Legal experts and economists sound the alarm over the EU’s sustainability rules rollback

Legal experts and economists sound the alarm over the EU’s sustainability rules rollback

June 18, 2025
BusinessPostCorner.com

BusinessPostCorner.com is an online news portal that aims to share the latest news about following topics: Accounting, Tax, Business, Finance, Crypto, Management, Human resources and Marketing. Feel free to get in touch with us!

Recent News

AI Warns of Crypto Black Swan: Would Blockchains Survive Nuclear War?

AI Warns of Crypto Black Swan: Would Blockchains Survive Nuclear War?

June 18, 2025
Millions on benefits to get £150 off bills

Millions on benefits to get £150 off bills

June 18, 2025

Our Newsletter!

Loading
  • Contact Us
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use
  • DMCA

© 2023 businesspostcorner.com - All Rights Reserved!

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Business
  • Finance
  • Accounting
  • Tax
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • Crypto News
  • Human Resources

© 2023 businesspostcorner.com - All Rights Reserved!