Iranian officials are threatening to escalate any conflict with the US in the wake of an American attack, indicating they will reconsider the Islamic republic’s previous doctrine of limiting retaliation to contain confrontations with Washington.
Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, said this week that while Iran’s strategy “used to be preventing escalation”, “US behavior has made us change our approach”.
“Should they make a mistake this time, we will inflict heavy casualties, as our armed forces are determined to stand against the bullying power to the end,” he said.
A regime insider in Tehran told the FT that Iran had recalibrated its military doctrine towards the US, shifting from largely symbolic retaliation to a strategy designed to impose tangible costs on American forces and assets if conflict erupts.
He added that Tehran was not seeking war and hopes talks between the US and Iran in Geneva on Thursday could pave the way for a new nuclear deal that would stop an American attack, but would rather fight than capitulate to US President Donald Trump.
“This time would not be a war game in response,” the insider said, referring to missile attacks on US bases in Iraq in 2020 and Qatar last year that were telegraphed to avoid full-scale war. “Iran would move toward escalation, targeting anything within reach from US bases to the Strait of Hormuz and American warships.”
While the regime insider indicated that Iran may not escalate in the case of a “very limited strike”, foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said the Iranian response to any attack would be “ferocious”. “There is no such thing as a limited attack,” he said.
Analysts outside Iran are sceptical about how much damage the Islamic republic could do against the US military, which has amassed its largest force in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
The military imbalance between Iran and its arch-foes was exposed after Israel and the US landed a series of severe blows during last year’s 12-day war on Iran. Iranian officials are concerned that American fighter jets and long-range strike capabilities could devastate their military and economic infrastructure within days.
Nonetheless, the insider argued that Iran’s ballistic missiles and drones could allow it to challenge its adversaries’ conventional superiority. Iran fired hundreds of projectiles against Israel during the June war, dozens of which got past Israeli defences and caused considerable damage.
“Conventional armies have their own weaknesses,” he said, pointing to US naval assets in the Gulf and regional bases hosting thousands of troops — which are far closer to Iran than Israel — that he said would become primary targets.
Lynette Nusbacher, a former senior intelligence adviser to the UK cabinet on the Middle East, said Iran’s threats of escalation should be taken seriously.
“The Iranian national security establishment is dangerous, but they’re not crazy,” she said. “They clearly signal, they understand their aims, they understand their adversaries’ aims, and they seek to work within that framework.”
Along with deploying their ballistic missile arsenal, she said Iran could also attempt to blockade shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime trade route through which much of the world’s seaborne oil passes. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards earlier this month said they were temporarily closing parts of the strait in naval exercises.
Iran’s retaliation to the US bombing raid on its nuclear facilities during the June war, when Tehran fired a series of missiles on an American base in Qatar after it had been emptied, appeared calibrated to avoid further conflict, and Trump later claimed Iran forewarned him.
“Can you imagine? They were nice enough — this is Iran — to call me and tell me that they would like to shoot me,” the US president said. “I said, ‘Go ahead.’ And they shot 14 high-grade, very fast missiles. Every single one of them was shot down.”
But in his State of the Union address on Tuesday, Trump accused Iran of “sinister ambitions” and called Iran’s missiles a threat to US bases. “They want to make a deal, but we haven’t heard those secret words, ‘We will never have a nuclear weapon’,” he said.
Iranian leaders insist their nuclear programme is solely for peaceful purposes, and that any agreement must recognise what they describe as Iran’s right under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty to enrich uranium.
Tehran has also said it will not agree to separate US demands to restrict its ballistic missile programme or to curb its support for anti-Israel armed groups.
Iran’s previous calibrated approach against the US has drawn criticism from regime loyalists at home, who argue it signals excessive caution — if not weakness — to their enemies.
After the US killed Qassem Soleimani — the top military commander responsible for discreet overseas operations — in Baghdad in 2020, Iran fired missiles at a base housing American forces in Iraq. The attack, the first on a US military base since the Vietnam war, caused structural damage but no fatalities.
“This time Iran will put aside those considerations and will go for responses to inflict costs,” Hamzeh Safavi, the son of a senior military adviser to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told the Entekhab news website, stressing that he was speaking in a personal capacity.
Safavi also claimed Tehran would unveil more advanced military technologies in any coming war, and added that Iran would no longer differentiate between the US and Israel in its retaliation. “Should Israel open strikes, Iran will hit the US as well. And should the US attack, Iran will also target Israel.”
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