Business decision makers believe generative AI models, such as the infamous talking bot ChatGPT, will either reduce the overall headcount at their organizations or increase it, depending on who is asked.
This is according to a recent KPMG survey of 200 business decision makers on their attitudes towards generative AI, which has taken the world by storm over the past year. Those who believe generative AI will increase their overall headcount claim the slight majority at 53%, but the proportion of those who believe it will serve to reduce their overall headcount remains significant at 40%. Meanwhile, 8% are confident it will have no material impact at all.
For those who believe generative AI will add to their headcount, the most common new role cited are—perhaps unsurprisingly—specialists in generative AI such as engineers and “bias detectors,” followed by data scientists and analysts, new senior management (e.g. “Head of AI”) and tech workers like engineers and coders, followed by specialists in safety, ethics and security as well as business development, and, finally, marketing. This pattern is telling, as the survey also found that lack of skilled talent was seen as a major barrier to implementation.
For those who believe the new technology will reduce their headcount, the role most expected to diminish in the wake of AI is “process and task-oriented/administrative workers.” Below that were “a combination of process and task-oriented workers and knowledge workers,” then just “knowledge workers,” followed by, in last place, those who don’t know what specific roles will be reduced but are confident that some will.
This finding lines up well with the findings of a previous KPMG survey which found, with the implementation of generative AI, 47% expect decreased job security, and 41% are concerned with reduced opportunities for overall development. It also is similar to the proportion of small business owners cited in a FreshBooks survey, which found 44% said generative AI will let them hire fewer people.
Despite this specific prediction, the poll also found that 4 out of 5 leaders say generative AI in general will have a more positive than negative impact on their workers. On this question, one of the biggest predictors of AI optimism seems to be having already deployed AI in their organizations: 35% of such respondents said generative AI would have an extremely positive impact on their workers; by contrast, just 12% of those who are still in the research and planning stage said the same thing.
“This survey affirms what I hear from CEOs: organizations already experimenting with generative AI are even more bullish about how it will monumentally change the way businesses are run,” said Atif Zaim, KPMG’s national managing principal of advisory. “The ability to rapidly analyze data from across their organization will give executives the ability to truly move with the agility that is critical in today’s volatile business environment.”
At the same time, leaders also anticipated major disruption due to AI, with 4 out of 5 saying generative AI will disrupt their entire industries, with 1 in 5 saying it will be especially significant. It was found that older workers, at 24%, were more likely to say the technology would be disruptive, versus younger ones; senior VPs, meanwhile, were more likely to say so than executives.
One way or the other, though, business leaders are going full steam ahead on generative AI regardless. A clear majority, 80%, anticipate an increase in generative AI investment by more than 50% in the next 6 months to one year, with 45% saying it will more than double. It is seen as the top emerging technology by far, blowing well past the number two option, 5G. Blockchain, once the darling of emerging tech watchers, was number four; the Metaverse was number seven; and NFTs/cryptocurrencies were number 10.
The most common intended uses for these investments are, first, infrastructure like cloud or on-premise servers and computing power, second, using generative AI to create scale in their business, third, generative AI training, fourth, hiring specialized AI talent, and fifth, developing new generative AI products. Top use cases include, at the top, self-service HR functions like onboarding, followed by analyzing customer feedback, and then identifying security threats and anomalies. The least-cited use case was “contracting and invoicing.”
Leaders did acknowledge a host of possible risks, though, including cybersecurity, privacy, legal risk surrounding intellectual property and copyright, lack of understanding of how an AI makes decisions, the potential for lies and misinformation, underperformance, increasing bias, legal liability from trusting AI at the wrong time, and weaponization. Despite this, most are confident they can successfully navigate these risks: the proportion of those who are only “moderately confident” was between 3-5% depending on the nature of the company. Everyone else was either confident or extremely confident.
Regulatory uncertainty also remains a major factor: 77% overall said regulatory uncertainty was moderately to extremely significant to their decisions to make generative AI investments. Despite this, they’re not waiting for regulations to emerge: 76% said they will not wait to make investments; at the same time, 62% agreed with the open letter calling for a pause in AI experiments.
“Generative AI adoption is quickly moving forward, and organizations are figuring out how to comply with regulation,” said Emily Frolick, trusted imperative leader at KPMG. “Executives need to proceed with vigilance as regulation around generative AI is built and implemented.”
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