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US economy picks up amid heated presidential campaign

July 25, 2024
in Business
Reading Time: 2 mins read
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US economy picks up amid heated presidential campaign
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Forecasters had been predicting growth this quarter of about 2%.

But Thursday’s figures showed the economy bouncing back from a slowdown at the start of the year, when gross domestic product (GDP) grew just 1.4%.

As well as strong consumer spending, the report showed increased business investment and an uptick in exports.

In a statement, Mr Biden said the report “makes clear we now have the strongest economy in the world”.

But University of Iowa professor Michael Lewis-Beck, who is known for a model that predicts popular vote outcomes based on economic growth and presidential approval, said growth did not appear to have been strong enough in the first half of this year to overcome Mr Biden’s steep unpopularity.

His model had predicted a narrow loss for Mr Biden based on the start of the year growth. He warned that Democrats would face even stiffer odds now that the president is off the ballot, as they lose any incumbent advantage.

The election remains close and complicated, he added, noting that the three elections since 1948 that his model has been wrong – in 1960, 1968 and 1976 – took place in “turbulent times”, like today’s.

“Not that the economy wasn’t relevant in those times, but there were other huge things going on,” he said, describing the current race as a “nail biter”.

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