A sobering milestone for Gaza and German democracy

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Firstly, thank you to the Nick Lowe fans out there, especially those who pointed out that the original of “Peace, Love and Understanding” by Elvis Costello and the Attractions is superior. The other Elvis had a better grasp of this week’s theme: “Suspicious Minds”.

Monday will be the 500th day since the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict and trust between the two sides, and the economic powers trying to resolve the war, remains at rock bottom. European heads are now working on a solution to counter US President Donald Trump’s proposals to clear Gaza of Palestinians to enable an American reconstruction. The next few days will tell us not only for how long the current fragile ceasefire in that region holds, but whether fresh ones can be agreed given that the Israel-Hizbollah ceasefire ends on Tuesday.

European heads of state will gather in Paris on Monday to agree a proposal to resolve the war in Ukraine, at the start of what will be a decisive week for European defence strategy. This is a catch-up exercise, however, after Trump’s call to Vladimir Putin and his decision to open talks with the Russian president.

Another (depressing) theme for the coming days is the rise of rightwing populist political groups. One focus for this is the Conservative Political Action Conference, which starts in Washington on Wednesday. Another is the snap German election, which feels anything but given the acres of coverage and debate, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to poll strongly. Click here for the latest polling figures.

The AfD might be on the rise, but it is highly unlikely to be the largest party when the votes are counted. The centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Christian Social Union sister party have gained the most in the polls since the election was called, meaning that CDU leader Friedrich Merz is the frontrunner to be the country’s next chancellor, despite recent political stumbles.

He will inherit an ailing economy that after years of impressive growth has slipped into stagnation — two years in recession, with a third likely in 2025. The German labour market statistics, out on Tuesday, are likely to reinforce the gloom in the run-up to Sunday’s national vote, making a Merz victory more likely but the scale of the challenge all the more obvious.

Difficult economics will be laid bare for other countries this week with a run of data including UK inflation, public sector finances and employment figures, a purchasing managers’ index (PMI) report for the G7 nations and Japanese inflation and GDP estimates all in the schedule.

Earnings season has peaked, but there will continue to be a steady flow of results. They include the last of the British banks to report numbers, HSBC, Standard Chartered and Lloyds Banking Group, and European carmakers Mercedes and Renault. Expect more debate on electric vehicles.

Retail is another theme, notably US retailer Walmart, whose success in seeing off the Amazon threat with revamped physical stores and increased online investment is the subject of an enlightening piece by the FT’s consumer editor Gregory Meyer, reporting from Bentonville, Arkansas, home of the 63-year-old company founded by Sam Walton.

One more thing . . . 

With two children taking significant school exams this year, I’ve been banned from organising the important annual ski trip family gathering with our Austrian relatives in their joyously alpine surroundings. The fact that there is a bid to build the world’s biggest fondue in France next weekend is, frankly, rubbing it in. For those fortunate enough to be hitting the slopes, the good news is that the FT is on hand to help with a guide to the best resort restaurants.

However you are filling the next seven days, feel free to email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com, or, if you are reading this from your inbox, by hitting reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Billie O’Connor becomes Mulberry Group CFO, succeeding Charles Anderson who stepped down at the end of January

• Japan: Q4 GDP data

• UK: CIPD Labour Market Outlook and Rightmove House Price index

• US: Presidents’ Day public holiday. Markets closed

• Results: Bridgestone FY, GPT FY, Lendlease HY, MONY Group FY

Tuesday

• Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has a “fireside chat” in Brussels with Jeromin Zettelmeyer, director of Belgian think-tank Bruegel, on “preserving and enhancing open financial markets”

• Canada: January consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• UK: December unemployment data

• Results: Arista Networks Q4, BHP HY, Cadence Design Systems Q4, Capgemini FY, Fluor Q4, InterContinental Hotels Group FY, Kerry Group FY, Medtronic Q3, Plus500 FY

Wednesday

• Bank of England executive director for payments Victoria Cleland speaks on a panel at the Currency Research Central Bank Payments summit in Paris on “what can be the next game changer”

• UK: January CPI and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• US: Federal Open Market Committee publishes minutes of its last meeting

• Results: Analog Devices Q1, BAE Systems FY, Carrefour FY, Charles River Laboratories Q4, Devon Energy Q4, EQT Q4, Etsy Q4, Garmin Q4, Glencore FY, HSBC FY, Jet2 trading update, Manchester United Q2, National Australia Bank Q1 trading update, Occidental Petroleum Q4, Philips Q4, Rio Tinto FY, UOB FY, Verallia FY

Thursday

• Sasha Mills, executive director, financial market infrastructure, at the Bank of England speaks at the UK T+1 Accelerated Settlement Market event, hosted by KPMG in London

• Australia: January labour force survey

• China: Prime Loan rate announcement

• UK: British Retail Consortium Consumer Sentiment Monitor

• Results: Accor FY, Aegon HY, Airbus FY, Akamai Technologies Q4, Alibaba Q3, Anglo American FY, ANZ Q1, Centrica FY, Consolidated Edison FY, Fortescue HY, Hasbro Q4, Hays HY, Live Nation Entertainment Q4, Lloyds Banking Group FY, Mercedes-Benz FY, Mondi FY, Newmont Q4, Renault FY, Repsol Q4, Safestore Q1 trading update, Tripadvisor Q4, Walmart Q4, Zurich Insurance Group FY

Friday

• Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US: flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• Japan: January CPI inflation rate data [AM local time]

• UK: January retail sales figures for Great Britain, plus January public sector finances, including monthly data on government net borrowing and debt

• Results: Air Liquide FY, Kingspan FY, Standard Chartered Q4

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• 500th day since the start of the Hamas-Israel conflict, sparked by Hamas launching an attack on Israel on October 7 2023. The Israel-Hizbollah ceasefire agreement halting the conflict in southern Lebanon will expire tomorrow, unless it is extended

• European heads of state gather in Paris to agree a proposal to resolve the Ukraine War

Tuesday

• EU: Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Ecofin) meeting of all EU finance ministers in Brussels

• Israel/Lebanon: Israel-Hizbollah ceasefire agreement expires, unless extended. The initial deal, brokered by the US and France, began in November and halted nearly 14 months of conflict by requiring both sides to withdraw from southern Lebanon

• Japan: Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, begins a three-day visit to review the country’s nuclear power plants

• Switzerland: World Trade Organization’s two-day general council meeting begins in Geneva

Wednesday

• Barbados: Caricom meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community

• South Africa: finance minister Enoch Godongwana presents the annual national budget to parliament in Cape Town

• US: Conservative Political Action Conference begins in Washington, running until Saturday

Thursday

• South Africa: G20 foreign ministers begin a two-day meeting in Johannesburg

• UK: London Fashion Week 2025 begins, running until February 24

Friday

• US: 60th anniversary of the assassination in New York of Malcolm X, who rose to prominence as the spokesman of the Nation of Islam, an African-American Muslim group that espoused Black separatism

Saturday

• France: the small town of Les Rousses will attempt to set a new world record for the largest fondue. More than 3,000 people are expected to attend the event. The previous record holder was Switzerland with 1,441.3kg of cheese in 2009

• Japan: Takeshima Day, claiming sovereignty over Korea’s Dokdo Island. Started in 2006 to annoy South Korea

Sunday

• Germany: parliamentary elections

• Japan: The Emperor’s Birthday, a national Holiday honouring Emperor Naruhito, who this year turns 65