CPA execs feel shakier about US economy

CPA business executives’ outlook on the U.S. economy appears to be dimming, thanks to persistent inflation and growing worry over tariffs, according to a new survey from the AICPA & CIMA.

The quarterly survey found that the post-election jump in business executives’ optimism about the U.S. economy has moderated, dropping from a more than three-year high of 67% in the fourth quarter to 47% in the first quarter of this year. The survey polls chief executive officers, chief financial officers, controllers and other CPAs in U.S. companies who hold executive and senior management accounting roles.

The survey was conducted before the Trump Administration imposed tariffs this week on Canada, Mexico and China (and then delaying the tariffs today on Canada and Mexico for a month), but respondents were asked their general views about unspecified tariffs if they were put in place. Fifty-nine percent indicated that tariffs would have a negative effect on their businesses, while 85% said uncertainty surrounding the subject had influenced their business planning to some degree — nearly one in five (18%) described that impact as significant.

Inflation remained the top concern for CPA business execs, followed by issues related to staffing — employee and benefit costs (No. 2), availability of skilled personnel (No. 3), and staff turnover (No. 10). Domestic political leadership, which was absent from last quarter’s top 10 concerns, reemerged at No. 6.

“There are a lot of warning signs right now for business executives, particularly around inflation, payroll costs and consumer confidence, with tariffs adding another layer of uncertainty,” said Tom Hood, AICPA & CIMA’s executive vice president for business engagement and growth, in a statement Thursday. “That said, it’s important to recognize that economic optimism remains higher than at any point since mid-2021, aside from last quarter’s notable increase. Additionally, expansion plans have held steady from the previous quarter.”

The survey also found that business executives who said they were optimistic about their own organization’s outlook over the next 12 months dropped from 53% to 50%, quarter over quarter.

Revenue and profit expectations for the next 12 months both eased from the fourth quarter’s large increases. Revenue growth is now anticipated to be 3%, down from a 3.3% projection in the fourth quarter. Profit projections are now 2%, down from 2.2% last quarter.

Survey respondents who expect their businesses to expand over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 57%.

Some 39% of the business executives polled indicated they had too few employees in the first quarter, a 1% increase from the fourth quarter. One-in-five said they were ready to hire immediately, unchanged from last quarter.