Why Is Crypto Up Today? – July 28, 2025

‘52% Chance of BTC Hitting $150,000 by Year-End’

John Glover, Chief Investment Officer of Ledn, commented on BTC’s recent performance, looking at the short-term wave count.

“As all waves in the direction of the trend can be broken down into wave sub-waves, we look at the blue line in the chart below and can clearly see that we are in the process of completing wave 4 of wave iii,” he says, adding that, once completed, wave iii could complete by rallying to some $132,000.

He continues:

“A corrective wave iv will likely follow as we see early profit takers come into play, and we will sell off to somewhere in the region of $120,000 before the rally into year-end to $136,000 to $142,000 to complete Wave 5.”

Meanwhile, Nick Forster, Founder at onchain options platform Derive.xyz, argued that “Mike Novogratz’s $150,000 prediction isn’t some moonshot anymore. Options markets now imply a 52% chance of BTC hitting $150,000 by year-end.”

“What’s even more interesting is the volatility differential: BTC’s implied December volatility is just 30%, while ETH’s is 60%. So expect a smoother climb for BTC, and a wilder ride for ETH.”

Furthermore, ETH’s upside bets are exploding, Forster says. The probability of ETH hitting $6,000 by 25 December has more than quadrupled, from just under 7% at the start of July to over 30%. “That’s a massive re-pricing of tail risk,” he concluded.

Levels & Events to Watch Next

At the time of writing, BTC trades at $118,976. Its lowest point today was $117,914, hitting a daily high of $119,754 soon after. It has pulled back somewhat since. Overall, it’s unchanged in a week and is up 10.7% in a month. As July nears its end, the coin shows strength and resilience.

Investors are waiting to see if BTC will retake its ATH level, which would indicate another move higher.

Also, Bitcoin may see some increased volatility in the short term, following a $9.7 billion exit by a Satoshi-era whale.

Moreover, Ethereum is currently trading at $3,886, rising significantly over the weekend, from $3,621 seen on Friday.

It started the day at $3,762, surging over the 24 hours to the current level. Its highest point today is $3,936. There is little doubt in many analysts’ minds that ETH will reach the much-anticipated $4,000 very soon.

As seen in the chart below, it’s been working towards it for the entire July. It’s up 2.7% in a week and 60.3% in a month, outperforming BTC.

That said, per historical data, an August rally could potentially push the price of ETH as high as $6,000, per certain analyses.

Furthermore, the crypto market sentiment has stayed mostly unchanged over the past few days. The crypto fear and greed index has remained in the greed territory for nearly three weeks now.

Currently, it stands at 67 today, compared to 64 yesterday, signaling ongoing positivity among investors, with a healthy dose of caution.

Meanwhile, the US BTC spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw inflows on the previous day of trading. They recorded $130.69 million on 25 July. The cumulative net inflow now stands at $54.82 billion.

On Friday, six funds saw positive flows, and one saw outflows. BlackRock is back on top, taking in $92.83 million, followed by Ark&21 Shares’ $30.27 million. At the same time, Grayscale lost $50.5 million.

At the same time, with Friday’s inflow of $452.72 million, the US ETH ETFs recorded 16 consecutive days of positive flows, still moving towards hitting a new record. The surge in price is fueling institutional interest. The cumulative net inflow is now $9.33 billion.

Four funds recorded positive flows, with BlackRock leading the list with $440.1 million. On the other hand, $23.49 million flowed out of Grayscale.

Additionally, Bitwise’s Hougan argues that ETH ETF demand could reach $20 billion within the next year. This would be equivalent to 5.33 million ETH at current prices.

Metaplanet, the Tokyo-listed firm aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, added another 780 BTC to its treasury, bringing the total to 17,132 BTC since December 2024.