U.S. tariff revenue reached a fresh monthly record in July, though the increase wasn’t enough to prevent a widening in the monthly budget deficit — pointing to the federal government’s continuing fiscal challenges.
Customs duties climbed to $28 billion last month, marking a 273% surge over July last year, a Treasury Department release showed on Tuesday. At the same time, the monthly budget deficit came in at $291 billion, or 10% more than the same month a year before, after accounting for calendar differences.
As the fiscal year approaches its September end, the U.S. is heading for another outsize deficit. The gap for the 10 months through July weighs in at $1.63 trillion. That’s 4% narrower than the prior year, after adjusting for differences in the calendar and removing the impact of deferred tax payments received in 2024, Treasury officials told reporters on a call..
So far in the fiscal year, tariff revenue has reached $142 billion. Back in June, the enlarged tariff take helped the government notch a rare monthly surplus of $27 billion — the first June in the black since 2015. For all of 2025, tariff revenues could come in at $300 billion, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
“I’ve been saying $300 billion, but I think we’re going to have to substantially revise that up,” Bessent said on Fox Business Tuesday. He indicated the revenue could be “well in excess” of 1% of GDP.
Still, President Donald Trump’s signature tax and spending bill, enacted last month, is expected by most economists along with the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office to worsen U.S. fiscal deficits over the coming decade.
Interest costs on the public debt, along with bigger spending on Medicare and Social Security, continue to make up a large share of the increase in the deficit compared with the pre-COVID period.
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