Prediction market platform Kalshi has called off plans for its latest offering: Contracts that would let users wager on upcoming flight cancellations. The decision comes after social media users expressed fears that bad actors could make mischief at airports in order to collect a payout, and after popular airline-tracking service FlightAware said Kalshi could not use its data to resolve the contracts.
Kalshi had planned to begin listing flight cancellation contracts on Wednesday, according to a regulatory filing, but a spokesperson on Thursday told Fortune that the company has opted not to go forward for now.
Kalshi’s proposed contracts applied to airport-wide cancellations, not individual flights, and included detailed rules prohibiting insiders—including TSA agents and airport and union officials—from placing wagers. Nonetheless, skeptics seized on the news to warn that airport workers seeking a payoff might collude to cancel a flight, or that crooks could call in fake threats to shut down air travel.
Several wags on social media noted that betting on flight delays had formed the plot for an episode of the popular TV comedy series Seinfeld:
— Market Monk (@marketmonkpicks) July 15, 2026
It’s unclear to what degree the concern over the Kalshi flight contracts was justified given the prohibition of wagers by insiders, and in light of stiff criminal penalties for threats or hoaxes directed at the airport industry.
Frequent travelers, meanwhile, may wish they had the option to use prediction markets as a hedge against flight cancellations, particularly in hubs like Denver and Newark that are notorious for weather-related shutdowns.
The Kalshi spokesperson noted that flight cancellation contracts could also serve as a valuable hedging instrument for conference organizers and others whose business is highly sensitive to flight cancellations. The spokesperson added that FlightAware’s claim the company could not use its data was unfounded since the information is in the public domain.
The flap over Kalshi’s airline contracts is just the latest controversy to engulf the prediction market industry, which proponents regard as a valuable source of market intelligence, but which detractors lambast as forums for mischief and reckless gambling.
On Thursday, news broke that Donald Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator had illegally used Kalshi to bet on which words the President would say in a given speech. In a tweet, the company’s lawyer said Kalshi had detected the suspicious trades and reported them to the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission.
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