AI connected to more hiring, but growth favors older workers with less exposure

Payroll data from Gusto has found that AI is having a mixed impact on hiring at small businesses. While overall those who use AI more are doing more hiring, not less, only a fraction of these gains are going to young people in their early career or those in heavily AI-exposed professions. 

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According to Gusto, small businesses with more AI-exposed workforces are seeing overall revenue and hiring gains. Gusto measured AI exposure using a method developed by researchers at OpenAI and the University of Pennsylvania. Each job gets a score from 0% to 100% based on how much AI could speed up its core tasks. Gusto then averaged that stat across a company’s workforce to see how AI-exposed each business is overall. A higher score doesn’t mean jobs are at risk — it simply means AI tools are relevant to the work being done. 

Tracking data from 7,700 small businesses over nearly three years, Gusto found that when a business shifts toward more AI-exposed work, revenue tends to grow. The ratio, generally, is for every 10 percentage points in AI exposure, there’s a 2.2% monthly revenue increase six months later. In terms of hiring, Gusto found that businesses that became more AI-exposed tended to have slightly more employees (1.6%) six months later. The report said that when AI boosts productivity, some businesses may use those gains to expand — taking on more customers, adding services or reinvesting in growth. Others may reduce headcount. On average, Gusto found that expansion is more common, explaining the small positive result. 

However, these job gains seem to mostly benefit older, more experienced workers in areas that are not as heavily exposed to AI. While total small business employment grew 9.6% from January 2023 to November 2025, employment in highly AI-exposed occupations (e.g., copywriters, accountants and customer service representatives) grew only 3.4%. Meanwhile, since early 2023, workers ages 22-28 in highly AI-exposed roles have actually seen declining headcount, indicating that the slowdown is concentrated among younger, early-career workers.

“This is consistent with other research, and suggests that as AI automates routine tasks, employers may be hiring fewer entry-level workers and favoring experienced employees who can exercise judgment and use AI tools to create business value,” said the Gusto report.