New research from Forrester reveals a disconnect between the narrative around artificial intelligence-driven layoffs and reality.
Most companies claiming to replace workers with AI don’t actually have the technology ready to do so. When Forrester analysts ask clients preparing AI-related layoffs whether they have mature, vetted AI applications ready to fill those roles, the answer is almost always no.
“Our CEO said we’re laying off 20% of staff and replacing them with AI. How do we do that?” is a question Forrester hears weekly from clients, according to writing from J.P. Gownder, the firm’s vice president and principal analyst.
But HR leaders often hit a barricade because most workplaces haven’t even started building the AI systems that would make such replacements possible. “When we ask if they have a mature, vetted AI app ready to fill in those jobs, nine out of 10 times, the answer is no—and they haven’t even started,” according to Gownder.
The reality behind layoffs
Despite the disconnect between current AI capabilities and layoff announcements, Forrester’s data shows AI will have a real impact on employment over the next five years. The firm predicts 6.1% of U.S. jobs will be lost to AI and automation by 2030, equating to 10.4 million positions.
The forecast represents a shift from Forrester’s 2023 predictions. Generative AI now accounts for 50% of expected job losses, up from just 29% in the earlier forecast. This change reflects the emergence of agentic AI applications that can solve specific problems with greater accuracy.
But job elimination tells only part of the story. Forrester found that AI will strongly influence 20% of jobs, a rate 3.25 times higher than complete job replacement. This represents a nearly fourfold increase compared with the firm’s 2023 forecast.
Read more | AI layoffs backfire: 55% of employers admit regret
‘Workflows and tasks don’t equal jobs’
Rather than rushing to implement AI replacements that don’t yet exist, HR leaders should focus on preparing their workforces for an AI-augmented future.
At organizations with executives claiming that AI justifies immediate workforce reductions, Forrester analysts suggest that HR leaders should seek proof that the technology can actually perform the work being eliminated. Without adequate AI systems in place, such layoffs amount to cost-cutting measures disguised as innovation. “So, most of the layoffs are financially driven and AI is just the scapegoat, at least today,” wrote Gownder.
The forecast suggests that through 2030, work will remain largely human. While AI will increasingly handle specific workflows and tasks, workflows and tasks don’t equal complete jobs. Organizations that try to eliminate positions before understanding this distinction risk both operational disruption and employee trust.
The right move, according to Forrester, is building a human-centered approach with AI in a supporting role rather than as a replacement for human judgment and creativity. “Your strategy must invest in the people who use AI to improve their productivity and employee experience,” according to Gownder’s post.
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