In February, the U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs. Unemployment rose to 4.4 %. Economists had expected modest growth. Instead, job losses swept through construction, manufacturing, restaurants, administrative services, and healthcare.
But the deeper crisis isn’t a bad month. It’s a structural transformation that has been building for years.
The Workforce Is Shrinking — and Fast
American birth rates have fallen below replacement levels. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the U.S. population under age 24 will decline every year for the next three decades. And according to a Brookings Institution analysis, net migration to the United States turned negative in 2025 for the first time in at least half a century.
The working-age population is shrinking. The pipeline of future workers is narrowing. Immigration is in decline. Together, these trends point to a tightening labor pool that threatens economic growth, global competitiveness, and fiscal stability for decades ahead.
America needs a workforce strategy that operates on two timelines: building the workforce of tomorrow and activating talent that is ready to contribute today.
The Talent Is Already Here
About half of recently arrived, work-authorized immigrants hold at least a bachelor’s degree. Many are engineers, healthcare professionals, financial analysts, and educators — with the added advantage of global experience. Millions are struggling to find work that matches their skill level.
Yet significant barriers keep them on the sidelines: Credential recognition barriers, limited professional networks, and hiring biases keep trained professionals out of the careers they spent years building that have nothing to do with ability. The result is a neurosurgeon driving for a rideshare company. A civil engineer stocking shelves. A financial analyst taking warehouse shifts. Each one of them represents not just an individual loss, but a loss to the industries that need their skill — and a nation that needs their productivity.
These are not pipeline problems. The talent is trained and ready. It is being wasted.
What It Looks Like When It Works
As CEO of Upwardly Global, I’ve seen this gap up close. One story that stuck with me was Jawad’s. A nurse trained in Tunisia, he spent years driving Uber and working in warehouses after immigrating to Chicago — even while a local hospital was running 20 nurses short.
His credentials and the hospital’s needs were both there. The pathway was missing. After we connected him with a job coach and board exam specialist, he landed a position in that hospital’s ICU.
Immigrant jobseekers like Jawad earn an average of $9,000 a year when they first come to us. After our coaching and resources help them find placement in a skill-aligned role, their average starting salary exceeds $66,000 — a $57,000 per capita increase in year one. This income flows directly into consumer spending, tax revenue, and GDP growth. Across tens of thousands of job placements, our alumni have contributed billions to the U.S. economy.
What Business Leaders Can Do Now
My work with college students and immigrant professionals across America has given me unique insight into the undercapitalized talent we need to drive the productivity and innovation necessary to outcompete the world.
Colleges and universities remain among America’s most powerful engines of workforce development — building the talent pipeline for the decade ahead. But that takes time. Employers don’t have to wait.
- Evaluate candidates on what they can actually do, not where their credentials were issued
- Partner with workforce development organizations that connect you to job-ready immigrant professionals already in your market
- Invest in the colleges training tomorrow’s workforce
The companies adopting these practices aren’t waiting for the talent market to change. They’ll be the reason it does.
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