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With a single Truth Social post, US President Donald Trump announced a halt to his war against Iran just as it was on the brink of a perilous escalation. The Islamic regime, predictably, claimed the US had “surrendered to the Iranian nation’s determination”, but said it too would agree to a two-week ceasefire.
Trump’s war of choice was a reckless gamble from the start, lacking coherent goals or a day-after plan. After more than five weeks of conflict, which spread across the Middle East, cost thousands of — mostly Iranian — lives, roiled energy markets and threatened to trigger a global economic crisis, the truce brought relief for millions of people.
There were no winners in this war. The US declared military victory and the war certainly hit hard Iran’s military and industrial infrastructure. But Iran also emerged with the Islamic regime still in place — perhaps even more radical — and with new leverage in its control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Trump may muse about a change of regime but Iran’s new leader is the son of Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader assassinated on the first day of the war.
The easing of anxieties in the Middle East must be tempered with caution: this is a fragile ceasefire between two foes deeply distrustful of each other after decades of hostility. There is a long way to go between a ceasefire and a permanent end to the war. Indeed, Iranian attacks were reported across the Gulf on Wednesday, while Israel launched massive air strikes across Lebanon and the Iran-backed Hizbollah. Israel insisted Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire. Pakistan, the mediator, disagreed and Iran warned that agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was contingent on Lebanon’s inclusion.
One crucial test will be whether all parties can agree on Lebanon. Another is whether Iran allows the free movement of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as the ceasefire deal stipulates. As US petrol prices soared past $4 a gallon, reopening the vital waterway became Trump’s main objective after the massive US-Israeli military onslaught failed to dislodge the regime or force it to capitulate. Yet Iran has signalled it will continue seeking a tolling fee — a red line for most of the US’s Gulf allies who depend on the waterway.
Talks on a negotiated settlement will also be fraught. Trump described a 10-point plan presented by Iran as a “workable basis” for negotiations. He also said he was “talking” sanctions relief with Iran and discussing how his administration would work with the regime to recover highly enriched uranium, buried beneath the rubble of nuclear facilities the US bombed last June.
But it is one thing to talk up the prospect of an agreement and another to secure one that both sides accept. For a start, it is still unclear whether he and Iran are talking about the same 10-point plan. Trump also likes quick wins, but if negotiations are to include what remains of Iran’s nuclear programme, the Iranians have far more experience and expertise and are known to haggle for years.
Trump’s hubris and his underestimation of his enemy help explain why he launched the war in the first place. Spurred on by American hawks and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he disregarded warnings from Washington’s Arab allies.
They had predicted that an Iranian regime facing an existential battle would hit out at energy facilities in the Gulf to raise the costs for its foes, and would hold shipping hostage through the Strait of Hormuz. The risk for them now is that the ceasefire will not lead to a US-Iran deal but will be indefinitely prolonged. That is preferable to all-out war. But it would not be peace so much as a permanent state of instability.
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