Altcoins may be gearing up for one last major rally in the current market cycle, but only those with real-world utility and strong network activity are likely to benefit, according to Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts.
Speaking during an April 3 livestream, Coutts expressed cautious optimism about altcoins, suggesting that a final “breadth thrust” could occur within the next two months. However, the sustainability of such a rally remains uncertain.
“There will be a recovery, but it will favor altcoins with high-quality fundamentals and returning user activity,” the analyst noted, adding that increased network activity tends to be a strong driver of prices.
User Activity is the “North Star” for Spotting Altcoin Opportunities, Says Analyst
Coutts said that traders should closely monitor where user activity is flowing across blockchain networks, calling it a “north star” for identifying potential altcoin opportunities. He expects momentum to build by June—assuming Bitcoin reaches or surpasses its previous all-time highs by then.
Despite a vast universe of altcoins—more than 36 million according to recent data—only a few networks dominate in terms of value locked. Ethereum leads with 55.56% of total value locked (TVL), followed by Solana, Bitcoin, BNB Smart Chain, and Tron, according to CoinGecko.
While a potential altcoin rebound may be on the horizon, current metrics suggest the market remains Bitcoin-focused.
The Altcoin Speculation Index from Capriole Investments has fallen sharply to 12%, down 53% since late December. Meanwhile, Ether has dropped nearly 50% from its December highs.
CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index also signals a Bitcoin-dominated market, with a score of 14 out of 100. According to the index, this still qualifies as “Bitcoin Season,” where Bitcoin outperforms most top altcoins over a 90-day period.
Traditionally, analysts have watched Bitcoin dominance—a measure of Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap—for signs of an impending altcoin season. Currently, that figure stands at 62.84%. However, some experts argue that dominance is no longer a reliable signal.
Trading Volume Overtakes Bitcoin Dominance as Key Altcoin Season Indicator
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently stated that trading volume now plays a more important role in determining altcoin season dynamics than Bitcoin’s market share.
In the short term, the analyst suggests that while many altcoins may struggle to recover, those backed by real use cases and solid on-chain engagement could be poised for a final surge in the current market cycle.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, has also addressed the volatility on X, suggesting that Bitcoin holding above $76,500 until April 15—U.S. tax day—would be a bullish sign. He cautioned traders not to “get chopped up” by the current turbulence.
Last month, 10X Research warned that Bitcoin could revisit $73,000.
The firm noted retail investors flocked to meme coins during Bitcoin’s post-election rally in January, likely marking a market top. They suggested Bitcoin now needs a new catalyst to sustain upward momentum.
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