Crypto Reporter
Shalini Nagarajan
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Bitcoin held near $93,000 in Asian trading on Thursday, while regional stocks made a lacklustre start as soft US data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.
Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of The Coin Bureau, said Bitcoin has staged a “remarkable recovery” over the past day as a “perfect storm of good news” swung momentum back toward the bulls.
He pointed to Vanguard lifting its long-standing ban on Bitcoin ETFs, Bank of America recommending a 1% to 4% crypto allocation that could channel as much as $700b into the asset class, and growing confidence that crypto-friendly Kevin Hassett will become the next Fed chair.
“With a rate cut on December 10th largely priced in, all eyes are now on 2026 monetary policy expectations, and so Hassett would be a welcome appointment for markets,” Puckrin said.
Market snapshot
- Bitcoin: $93,609, up 0.9%
- Ether: $3,215, up 5.9%
- XRP: $2.20, up 0.7%
- Total crypto market cap: $3.27 trillion, up 1.8%
Bitcoin Eyes Breakout As Traders Track Key US Jobless Data
Akshat Siddhant, lead quant analyst at Mudrex, said a decisive breakout above current levels could clear the path to the $103,000 supply zone.
He added that traders are watching US weekly jobless claims later on Thursday, which could help support Bitcoin’s upward trajectory if they reinforce the case for easier policy.
Across equities, Asia traded mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose about 0.8%, while MSCI’s broad index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan slipped around 0.1%, weighed by declines in Korea and New Zealand.
Mainland China benchmarks were little changed to slightly higher and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index inched up, underscoring a cautious tone.
Rate Cut Probability Climbs As US Data Softens
US index futures were steady after Wednesday’s gains, with contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all modestly higher. European futures were flat to slightly weaker, with DAX and FTSE 100 edging down and CAC 40 a touch stronger.
Overnight on Wall Street, small caps led the advance. The Russell 2000 jumped about 1.9% and the S&P 500 notched a second straight rise after US private payrolls posted their biggest drop in more than two and a half years.
An Institute for Supply Management survey showed services employment contracting in November and the prices paid subindex falling to a seven-month low, even as overall services activity held near 52.6.
The run of softer numbers has strengthened the case for a near-term cut. Fed funds futures now imply roughly an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction at the meeting next week, up from about 83% a week earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Greenback Hits Five-Week Low, Investors Track Signals On Future Fed Moves
The dollar index slipped around 0.4% to 98.878, touching a five-week low and extending its losing streak to a ninth session. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury was steady near 4.07% after a Financial Times report said bond investors have expressed concern to the Treasury that Hassett could push for aggressive rate cuts aligned with President Donald Trump’s preferences.
Investors are also dealing with a backlog of US data after a record 43-day government shutdown earlier in the year disrupted the flow of official releases.
As delayed reports filter out, traders are placing more weight than usual on private sector surveys and high frequency indicators to gauge the Fed’s path.
The next major macro test comes on Friday with the release of the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Until then, markets are trading on the assumption that a December cut is virtually locked in and that 2025 and 2026 policy will hinge on how quickly growth and employment cool from here.
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