Ms de Bolle says the US is right to feel threatened by this turn of events, since Beijing has now established “a very strong foothold” in the region at a time when president-elect Trump wants to “rein in” China.
“I think we will finally start to see the US putting pressure on Latin America because of China,” she says, adding that most countries want to stay on the right side of both big powers.
“The region doesn’t have to choose unless it’s put in a position where they are forced to, and that would be very dumb.”
Looking ahead, South American countries such as Peru, Chile and Colombia would be vulnerable to pressure because of the bilateral free trade agreements they have with the US, which Trump could seek to renegotiate or even tear up.
They will be watching keenly to see what happens to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which is up for review in July 2026, but will be subject to negotiations during 2025.
Whatever happens, Prof Méndez of the LSE feels that the region needs more co-operation.
“It shouldn’t be that all roads lead to Beijing or to Washington. Latin America has to find a more strategic way, it needs a coherent regional strategy,” he says, pointing to the difficulty of getting 33 countries to agree a joint approach.
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