Donald Trump’s military build-up off the coast of Venezuela is aimed at convincing President Nicolás Maduro and his inner circle that staying in power will be more costly than leaving, according to Venezuelan opposition figures and analysts.
When the US ordered its largest deployment of warships and fighter jets to the Caribbean in more than 30 years, the mission was initially billed as a war on drug trafficking. Attacks to destroy small boats that the American president said were smuggling drugs soon followed. But the focus has shifted.
The priority now is to force the departure of top Venezuelan government figures, preferably via resignation or an arranged handover — but with the clear threat that if Maduro and his inner circle cling to power, the Americans may use targeted military force to capture or kill them.
“Trump’s strategy isn’t about putting boots on the ground, it’s about demonstrating overwhelming military superiority and using that power to achieve political ends,” said a Venezuelan opposition figure familiar with the discussions.
“The objective is clear: Maduro and his closest accomplices must be gone, one way or another, and soon.”
Asked about the US strategy, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said Trump was “prepared to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding in to our country and to bring those responsible to justice”.
Tommy Pigott, principal deputy spokesperson at the state department, said: “Maduro is not the legitimate leader of Venezuela; he’s a fugitive of American justice who undermines regional security and poisons Americans.”
At stake in Venezuela are the world’s largest proven oil reserves and valuable deposits of gold, diamonds and coltan. A US ally in the last century, the South American nation moved into the orbit of Russia, China and Iran under Hugo Chávez, the ex-army officer who led a “Bolivarian” socialist revolution from 1999 until his death from cancer in 2013.
Maduro, a Cuban-trained former bus driver who now has a $50mn bounty on his head from the US, was his chosen successor.
For Trump, who has given the western hemisphere more attention in nine months than any US president since Bill Clinton in the 1990s, Venezuela is a priority. He regards Caracas as unfinished business, having tried and failed to oust Maduro during his first term by imposing “maximum pressure” economic sanctions and recognising an alternative opposition-led government.
“It’s clear that the mission is evolving to become more of a regime collapse or regime change operation,” said Ryan Berg, head of the Americas programme at the CSIS think-tank. “More and more we’re banking on Maduro hightailing it out of Caracas . . . and a clean-out of the top 25 to 50 Chavistas,” adherents of Chávez’s ideology.
As American pressure rises, Venezuela’s government has attempted to negotiate with the US, even offering a handover of power from Maduro to vice-president Delcy Rodriguez, according to reports this week.
Asked on Friday what concessions Maduro had made to stave off further pressure from the Washington, Trump responded: “He has offered everything, you’re right. You know why? Because he doesn’t want to fuck around with the United States.”
Vanessa Neumann, a Venezuelan defence industry entrepreneur and former opposition envoy with close ties to the US security establishment, said: “The plan now is a capture of Nicolás Maduro. Capture-kill or capture-arrest and take him out, one way or another.”
Washington insiders describe a hardening of the government’s position on Venezuela in recent months, with Florida hawks such as Marco Rubio, secretary of state, and Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff, in the ascendant. Others who negotiated with Caracas earlier this year, such as special envoy Richard Grenell, have been sidelined, at least for now.
“The president’s strategy is to keep people off-balance, and that’s what he’s doing on Venezuela,” one former Trump administration official said. “He’s a very tactical person who responds to opportunities and situations. The actual steps to be taken are still under debate.”
Meanwhile, the Americans continue to ratchet up the pressure. Images of US warplanes, warships and special forces aircraft have circulated widely on social media in recent weeks, leading some analysts to suggest that Washington is waging a co-ordinated information war to unnerve the Chavista inner circle.
Military bloggers tracked three US B-52 bombers flying off the coast of Venezuela on Wednesday with transponders switched on to advertise their presence. The defence publication Army Recognition posted images of a special forces “ghost ship” operating in the Caribbean and images have surfaced on social media of special forces training on Black Hawk and Little Bird helicopters off the coast of Venezuela.
Maduro and his inner circle have responded by ordering military drills and touring the country to rally opposition to what they say is a planned “gringo” invasion. But their defiance belies concern about their own safety.
Well-connected business people inside Venezuela report that leading regime figures have switched mobile phones, are sleeping in different locations each night and have swapped out their Cuban bodyguards for fresh contingents from Havana.
“Security protocol dictates that officials constantly move between different sites,” an active Venezuelan general said, adding that they are moving between Caracas and the cities of Valencia and Maracay.
Sources in the security forces describe a “witch-hunt” for dissent within their ranks. “They’ll accuse anyone of being a traitor,” said a police officer. “They’re spying on us, keeping an eye on what we say in the hallways and online.”
Military analysts say the Venezuelan armed forces are in a poor state of readiness to fight an external enemy with much equipment unusable for lack of maintenance or spare parts.
“The Venezuela military has only looked strong because it’s been fighting unarmed civilians,” said one opposition figure, alluding to the army’s role in repressing dissent. However, Maduro also commands about a million well-armed irregular militia forces who could be used to resist an American incursion.
Complicating any assessment are radically different descriptions of the situation inside Venezuela from regime-connected executives and the opposition. According to the former, the Chavista government remains cohesive and will not break easily. The latter describe a cauldron of disillusion, with top regime figures ready to hand over Maduro and facilitate a transition of power.
Waiting in hiding inside the country for her moment is Maria Corina Machado, the conservative Venezuelan opposition leader and recent winner of the Nobel Peace Prize. Her movement hopes that after Maduro stole last year’s presidential election — a vote that international monitors and the US believe was overwhelmingly won by the opposition’s Edmundo González — the American military may pave the way for him to take power.
Whether that happens depends on Venezuela’s military, still crucial power brokers, and on whether Trump is satisfied with ousting Maduro or wants to go further and topple Chavismo to install Machado.
“What Trump wants in Venezuela is oil, minerals and gold,” asserted one American businessman with interests in the country. “He wants US companies down there investing. He doesn’t give a damn about regime change.”
Others who do business with Maduro warn of a risk that if the government is decapitated, Venezuela could slide into civil war, like Libya or Iraq after US intervention. “There’s a real danger that if the Americans overplay their hand, you get a much more radical, dark regime taking power,” one said. “And overplaying is what Americans do. They don’t understand subtlety.”
Opposition figures reject that assessment, arguing that Venezuela is a much more cohesive country than Iraq or Syria, lacking the religious or ethnic factions that tore those nations apart after their authoritarian governments were toppled.
Whichever assessment proves correct, time is running short. Former administration officials point out that US forces cannot sustain their current state of readiness in the Caribbean indefinitely. The longer they stay, the higher the risk of an accident, particularly during the hurricane season, which lasts until the end of November.
“Trump doesn’t talk about elections, the opposition or democracy,” said one former Trump administration official. “That leaves it open to him to define a win in Venezuela any way he wants. What he likes is being a showman. He wants lots of explosions.”
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