Fed rate cuts outlook: stronger economy means less easing

Kashkari, in his first public remarks since he and his colleagues lowered interest rates earlier this week, indicated it was too early to determine whether policies from the incoming Trump administration and the new Congress would stoke inflation and ultimately lead to fewer rate reductions. He said the Fed will need to wait and see what policies actually materialize before factoring them into their analysis. 

“It’s really going to depend not so much on near-term plans between Congress and the new administration — it really is about productivity and economic growth,” Kashkari said Saturday in an interview on Fox News. “If that is sustained and we are in a structurally more productive economy going forward, then that tells me we probably wouldn’t end up cutting quite as far.”

Policymakers cut the benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point Thursday to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%, marking a second-straight decrease. 

The US central bank first reduced rates in September, and forecasts released at the time suggested policymakers would likely deliver quarter-point cuts at both the November and December meetings. Traders have since pared back bets on a reduction next month and see fewer cuts overall this cycle. 

The prospect of a near-term pause in rate cuts reflects a mix of economic and political variables. The economy continues to grow at a robust pace, inflation picked up in September, and the labor market is cooling — but not as fast as feared just a few months ago. The policies of a re-elected Donald Trump, meanwhile, present new inflationary risks.

US productivity, which allows workers to produce more output with less, has picked up in recent years. While it’s difficult to measure, increased productivity helps to keep a lid on inflation and is key to long-term economic growth.

Earlier this week, Chair Jerome Powell said he would not resign from his role if asked to do so by Trump, a clear signal he’s ready to defend the US central bank’s independence. Kashkari said he is confident that the Fed’s structure, with governors at the board in Washington serving 14-year terms and the 12 reserve bank presidents being independently appointed, will help maintain the central bank’s independence. 

Most of the leaders on both sides of the aisle want us to focus on our economic jobs, and “we’re going to continue to do that,” Kashkari said. “So I’m not concerned about the current dynamic. I think everybody wants inflation back down and a strong labor market.”