French whale betting on Trump is only doing it for the money

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, the so-called whale referred to himself as “Théo” and said he made his bets on Trump for one reason only. 

“My intent is just making money,” he said.

After questions arose about large pro-Trump trades on the platform, Polymarket reached out to the French whale behind the accounts but didn’t disclose his identity, saying only that he had “extensive trading experience and a financial services background.”

The trader’s handful of big bets were skewing the election odds in Trump’s favor, the Journal reported last month, raising fears of market manipulation to alter voters’ perceptions of the race. 

But Théo denied any such motives, telling the Journal in an email, “I have absolutely no political agenda.” 

He also said that he’s placing the Polymarket bets with his own money, which he said was the majority of his liquid assets. The outlet could not verify whether this was true or not. A spokesperson for Polymarket did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

Using several different accounts on Polymarket, Théo racked up his massive Trump wager through a series of small transactions which he said was to help prevent the price of his bets from rising so he could get a better deal.

For example, during a 10-hour period last week, the trader’s Theo4 account made over 450 bets on Vice President Kamala Harris not winning the presidential election in amounts ranging from $5 to tens of thousands of dollars.

Polymarket has been cited over the past several months by mainstream media outlets as an alternative to traditional polls, with some election watchers arguing that prediction markets are more likely to reflect an accurate picture of the race because people are putting real money behind their bets. 

Yet Polymarket is not available to American users and was fined by the CFTC in 2022 for “offering off-exchange event-based binary options contracts.” Two separate investigations by blockchain firms also found that a large chunk of the trading volume on Polymarket could potentially be chalked up to “wash trading,” a form of market manipulation where traders buy and sell shares repeatedly to falsely inflate market volume and activity, Fortune reported.

“Polymarket’s Terms of Use expressly prohibit market manipulation,” a Polymarket spokesperson previously said in a statement to Fortune. “We strive to provide users with the fairest analysis possible and our transparency allows the market to decide.”

If Théo’s Trump bets pan out, he could more than double his money, netting about $80 million, according to the Journal. If Harris wins, he could lose the majority of his money, or worse, lose his entire bet.

Théo said while he was new to election betting, he made the massive wagers on Trump because he believes the Republican candidate’s election odds are being understated by mainstream polls. He pointed to polls from 2016 and 2020 that came in well below Trump’s vote totals and the idea that some people don’t want to publicly support Trump. Polls from the New York Times/Siena College and Reuters/Ipsos put Trump and Harris in a dead heat with days left until election day.

The Journal described Théo as a man with a “short, neatly trimmed beard” who wore a gray Nike sweatshirt and had a slight accent when speaking English. He said he previously lived in the U.S. and traded for banks. The French whale also said he didn’t want to give his full name because his friends and children don’t know about his enormous wealth.

While Théo was confident about Trump’s odds in his interview with the Journal, he nervously admitted that the political winds can change in an instant.

“A surprise can always occur,” he said.

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