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Germany’s Friedrich Merz promised to “achieve independence” from the US after his centre-right bloc won federal elections, putting him at the head of a potentially complex coalition at a time of upheaval for Europe.
In an election where Germany shifted to the right, Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) came first with about 29 per cent of the vote on Sunday, according to projections, but still needed at least one other coalition partner to secure a working parliamentary majority.
Merz, within hours of polls closing, declared that Germany had to fundamentally remake its security arrangements and end a decades-long reliance on Washington, given US President Donald Trump was “largely indifferent” to Europe’s fate.
“I do not have any illusions in this regard,” Merz said, adding he was unsure about the future of Nato over the coming months.
Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came second in the election, with its highest ever vote share of about 20 per cent.
The Trump administration has openly courted the AfD and has criticised Germany’s mainstream politicians for refusing to cooperate with a party that has flirted with Nazi-era slogans, urged the end of sanctions on Russia and called for mass deportations of migrants.
Trump in recent weeks has blindsided Europe by holding direct talks with Russia over ending the war in Ukraine and has threatened to pull US security guarantees from the continent. Germany hosts the largest contingent of American troops stationed in Europe.
Trump earlier on Sunday described the election result as proof that “the people of Germany got tired of the no common sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration, that has prevailed for so many years”.
Outgoing German Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck said his country was facing a “historical challenge” that required urgent action. “The US don’t just leave Europe behind, they are working against Europe,” the senior Green politician said.
Merz has little option but to form a coalition with outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic party, which won a little over 16 per cent of the votes — its worst result since 1887.
But on Sunday night, it remained unclear whether Merz could negotiate a ruling majority strong enough to drive through fundamental reforms, including revisions to a constitutionally enshrined limit on public borrowing.
“I know the scale of the challenge that lies ahead of us,” Merz said. “I approach this with the greatest respect. And I know that it will not be easy.”
“We had a hard campaign but now we will talk to each other,” Merz said, adding it might be even more difficult to form a coalition than he had expected during the election campaign.
His political calculations were complicated by the fact that Merz’s traditional partner, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), was on course to fall short of the 5 per cent threshold to enter the Bundestag.
Meanwhile the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) stood on the cusp of securing seats in parliament — making it impossible for Merz to build a working majority with just the SPD. The Greens would be the most likely third party in a coalition.
Voter turnout reached its highest since German reunification in 1990, according to exit poll data, at a level of 84 per cent.
The preliminary results mark a big swing to the right after a series of deadly attacks by migrants fuelled anti-immigrant sentiment.
German voters shunned Scholz’s unpopular coalition with the Greens and the FDP. The Eurozone’s largest economy has stagnated for the past two years as German industry grappled with high energy prices and Chinese competition.
Alice Weidel, the AfD co-leader, celebrated the party almost doubling its vote share from 2021, to secure the biggest far-right gains in Germany since the second world war.
“We have led a magnificent campaign,” Weidel said, as she stressed her party was open for coalition talks with the CDU/CSU to meet “the will of the people”.
Scholz indicated he would step back from frontline politics after “a bitter result”, while his defence minister Boris Pistorius lamented “a devastating, catastrophic result”.
After witnessing three years of infighting among top members of Scholz’s fractious coalition, strategists from the CDU and its Bavarian sister party the CSU had made it a key goal to avoid needing more than one partner to form a government.
Under the German electoral system, parties winning less than 5 per cent of the vote are excluded from parliament and their votes are redistributed, strengthening the successful groups.
Holger Schmieding, economist at Berenberg Bank, warned about “serious risk” that fringe parties might be strong enough to block changes to the German constitution.
“If so, they could veto any loosening of the debt brake enshrined in the constitution”, while it was “crucial to raise spending for the military and Ukraine and ease the tax burden for workers and firms”, he added.
Deutsche Bank chief executive Christian Sewing said on Sunday night that Germany “now needs a government that is both capable and willing to act — and it needs it quickly”.
Data visualisation by Martin Stabe and Jonathan Vincent
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