The report, external said the DfE saw testing as “critical” to the success of rolling out 30 hours to three and four-year-olds in 2017 but decided not to test the market this time due to the cost.
Gareth Davies, the head of the NAO, said cancelling early testing plans “exacerbated the significant uncertainty about the sector’s capacity and financial sustainability”.
The NAO recommended the DfE continuously review the expansion in case it needs to relook at the timeline due to concerns about place numbers and staffing.
By September 2025, all eligible pre-school children of working parents will be able to access 30 hours of free childcare during term time.
As many as 85,000 more childcare places and 40,000 more staff will be needed by September 2025, according to official estimates.
The changes are being phased in to give the sector time to prepare.
The NAO said the dates for the scheme were decided without the DfE or the Treasury understanding whether nurseries and childminders would be able to deliver the number of places needed.
It said the DfE accepted that rolling out the new free hours “untested” was “a significant risk” and that the likelihood of delivering the number of places needed was amber-red which means “problematic”.
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