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A senior US diplomat has said oil-rich Gulf states would be willing to invest up to $10bn to develop southern Lebanon if Hizbollah disarmed and cut its ties to Iran.
Tom Barrack, the billionaire investor who is one of President Donald Trump’s top Middle East envoys, said the Iranian-backed militant movement needed an incentive to disarm.
“If you’re forcing them, it is not a good idea. We know that. With the Lebanese, with Arabs — the pride is something,” Barrack said at a conference in Bahrain “If you entice them and give them an option, maybe that works, but we have to try something.”
Gulf states are sceptical about investing in Lebanon before Hizbollah disarms but when asked if they would finance the plan, Barrack responded: “Yes.”
“They would be willing to invest up to $10bn in the southern operation, including that one,” he added.
The diplomat made the comments after months of US and Israeli pressure on Lebanon’s weak government to disarm Hizbollah, which has been the dominant military and political force in the country for years.
Washington brokered a ceasefire to end a 13-month war between Israel and the group that was triggered by Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack. But the truce has proved fragile and the Israeli military has launched regular air strikes targeting Hizbollah.
In Lebanon there are fears that Israel — which still occupies areas of Hizbollah’s heartland in southern Lebanon — is ratcheting up attacks on its Arab neighbour, and could relaunch an offensive against the militant group.
The Israeli government accuses Hizbollah of trying to rebuild its military capacity after it suffered devastating blows during the war.
The onus on disarming Hizbollah has been placed on the Lebanese government that took office in January and the Lebanese Armed Forces.
But many in the country worry that attempting to force the group, which has refused to disarm, to give up its weapons would trigger a new internal conflict.
Barrack acknowledged the concerns, saying “it’s just not reasonable to tell Lebanon to forcibly disarm one of your political parties”. In addition to its armed wing, Hizbollah has a political arm, with MPs and ministers in government.
“Everybody is scared to death of going to civil war,” Barrack, who is also the US ambassador to Turkey, said. “The idea is what can you do not to have Hizbollah utilise those rockets and missiles?”
Describing Lebanon as a “failed state” while underscoring the challenges of disarming the Iranian-backed group, he said Hizbollah had 40,000 fighters and the LAF 60,000 troops.
“The only problem is Hizbollah soldiers make $2,200 a month. The [LAF] soldiers make $275. And Hizbollah’s soldiers have 15,000-20,000 rockets and missiles. So which army is which?” he said. “What’s the state? The state is Hizbollah.”
Barrack insisted that Washington had set no timeline for Hizbollah to disarm, adding that the US was not “dictating” to Lebanon. But he said the Lebanese government should be talking to Israel — a country it is formally at war with and with which it has no diplomatic ties.
Barrack said that Lebanon’s leadership was “trying” to push ahead with reforms, but described them as “dinosaurs”.
“You have to go from the payphone to Starlink, not the payphone to home phones,” he said. “The conversation needs to be with Israel; it just needs to be with Israel. Israel is ready, in my opinion.”
He estimated that Hizbollah spent hundreds of millions of dollars annually on its fighters’ salaries and providing services such as education in southern Lebanon before the war.
If it agreed to disarm, the US would ask Gulf partners on Lebanon’s behalf to develop an “industrial zone” and “resort” in southern Lebanon along the Israeli border.
“You come with a new donor operation, we’ll [donors] fund $800mn in the meantime,” Barrack said. “You can’t ask Hizbollah to put down their weapons and to give up their villages out of the good heart for Lebanon.”
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