As everyone knows by now, it’s going to be really cold tonight in Iowa. The question hanging over every campaign in the hours leading up to the caucusing is whether their ground game can overcome cars that won’t start, roads that are iced up, and voters who just don’t want to leave the warmth of their homes to participate in an hours-long political scrum.
Here’s a brief analysis on how the cold could benefit each of the three frontrunners today, with a one-word take on their biggest advantage:
Donald Trump: enthusiasm. The much-watched Des Moines Register poll, released over the weekend, showed 49 per cent of Trump supporters were “extremely enthusiastic” about his candidacy — far higher than either Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis. That should help overcome the inertia to stay at home for many voters.
Ron DeSantis: organisation. The Florida governor has deployed the most resources into Iowa, and importantly has the endorsement of Iowa’s governor — who can access parts of the state party infrastructure to help in get out the vote (GOTV) efforts in rural areas, where trips to caucus locales can be lengthy journeys.
Nikki Haley: urbanisation. The former South Carolina governor is pinning her hopes on moderates in Iowa’s bigger cities and college towns. The advantage of focusing on urban areas is that, for the most part, in a city it’s easier to get people to the civic centres where caucuses are held than in a rural area. For her, GOTV should be less onerous.
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