Japan goes to the polls after shortest campaign in postwar era

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Voting has started in Japan in an election that has transformed national politics and appears on course to hand a historic power boost to the country’s first female prime minister.

Sunday’s election to the lower house of parliament follows the shortest campaign in the postwar period. It is being fought in February for the first time in 36 years with large parts of the north under a record amount of snow.

The surprise decision by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to dissolve parliament on January 23 unleashed an intensive two-week battle between her ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the newly formed Centrist Reform Alliance and an array of fast-growing populist parties.

The ratio of female candidates, at 24.4 per cent, is a record high.

Polls suggest that Takaichi’s brand of blunt populism, and pledges of wholesale change to her party and to Japan, have won widespread support from an electorate hungry for a break with the traditional model of leaders.

Although Takaichi is on track to increase the LDP’s control of parliament, political analysts said the margin of victory would depend on voter turnout, the impact of bad weather in rural constituencies and whether younger urban supporters of Takaichi voted.

Apart from providing a clear mandate for Takaichi’s right-wing policies, a big win on Sunday would revitalise the LDP after years of scandal and falling support.

The election has been called against a backdrop of inflation, economic strain for many households, rising levels of immigration and scepticism in bond markets that Japan’s finances can take the strain of Takaichi’s plans to increase government spending. Ahead of the weekend, the yen tumbled to about ¥157 against the dollar.

“Hope can’t be born from a politics that has remained hunkered down and defensive for decades,” Takaichi told a rally in Iwate prefecture on Friday.

During the campaign, she has criticised her own party’s under-investment in the economy and the tendency of corporate Japan to spend money overseas as the domestic population shrinks.

Yoshihiko Noda, co-leader of the CRA, the largest opposition party in parliament, is offering a moderate option to voters nervous about Takaichi’s hardline nationalism and has warned against rising populism.

Speaking at CRA’s final rally in Tokyo’s Ikebukuro on Saturday evening, Noda said that “people need to think about what comes next after the wild enthusiasm” for Takaichi, warning that she could change the nation’s pacifist constitution if she secured a large majority.

“Takaichi has moved Japanese politics too far to the right,” said Tanaka, a 50-year-old company employee at the snowy CRA rally. “CRA just formed so policy is tough for them. The number one thing here is to make sure Takaichi does not become prime minister.”

However, multiple young people approached by the FT who had voted early because of exams or part-time jobs said they had backed the LDP.

Chiro Asahina, a 20-year-old student, said he had voted for the LDP as “I want Takaichi to carry on with her diplomacy — that’s been very good”. 

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump, who met Takaichi shortly after she became prime minister in October, wrote on X that she was a “strong, powerful and wise leader”.

Heading into the election, the LDP held 199 seats in the 465-seat lower house and governed through a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party.

Political analysts said a realistic target for the LDP would be to achieve a “stable majority” of 244 seats, which would give it leadership of all lower house committees.

A bigger victory of 261 seats would give it majorities on all those committees and hand substantial parliamentary powers to Takaichi. 

About two-thirds of the Lower House seats are selected in single-seat districts. The remainder are allocated through a proportional representation system.