The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming is winding down.
Here are some of the key takeaways from the conference:
Powell Pivot
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s widely anticipated speech affirmed expectations for an interest-rate cut at the central bank’s next gathering on Sept. 17-18, bolstering stock prices and Treasuries.
“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Powell said Friday. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.”
Powell said he has more confidence inflation is on a path to the Fed’s 2% goal, while acknowledging there’s been an “unmistakable” cooling in the labor market. “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” he said.
While Powell offered little detail about how the Fed might proceed on borrowing costs after its September gathering, he did emphasize the need to focus on lessons learned in the central bank’s upcoming framework review.
International View
Powell wasn’t the only central banker to signal interest rates are on a firm path downward.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said Friday that while it’s “too early to declare victory” over inflation, the risks of persistent price pressures appear to be receding. The UK central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate earlier this month, and his comments suggested he’s growing more confident about further rate cuts.
Meanwhile, several members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council present at the conference said they would support another reduction in interest rates next month. That group included Finland’s Olli Rehn, Latvia’s Martins Kazaks, Croatia’s Boris Vujcic and Portugal’s Mario Centeno.
The ECB lowered borrowing costs in June. Centeno called a decision to ease in less than three weeks “easy,” given the data on inflation and growth.
Path Forward
On the sidelines of the conference, a series of Fed officials offered updated views on the economy and hints at the path ahead.
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said rate cuts should be “methodical.” He agreed it’s time to lower interest rates, adding, “Just start the process and keep it moving.”
Boston’s Susan Collins expressed a similar sentiment Thursday, noting “a gradual, methodical pace” of cuts is likely to be appropriate.
Papers and Panels
At its core, the three-day conference is academic in nature. Economists presented four research papers all related to the theme of “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.”
Perhaps most relevant to the current economic moment — given the increasing focus on employment — was research by Pierpaolo Benigno of the University of Bern and Brown University professor Gauti Eggertsson. They concluded that cooling in the labor market is approaching an inflection point, where additional slowing could bring a much larger increase in the US unemployment rate.
In a panel discussion Saturday with Brazil’s Roberto Campos Neto and Norges Bank’s Ida Wolden Bache, the ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said the return to 2% inflation is “not yet secure.” Campos Neto, meanwhile, said a tight labor market has made the task of taming inflation a challenge.
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