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US President Joe Biden has dramatically reset the 2024 presidential race by announcing he will drop out of the contest after weeks of pressure from his Democratic party to step aside.
The calls began following a disastrous debate performance last month and re-intensified after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump appeared to give the Republican nominee new momentum.
Biden endorsed his vice-president, Kamala Harris, soon after his announcement on Sunday, although the Democratic party has yet to give their official backing.
“The American people will hear from the Democratic Party on next steps and the path forward for the nomination process”, which will be governed by party rules, said Democratic National Committee chair Jaime Harrison.
Who is the leading candidate to replace Biden?
While Biden has endorsed Harris to replace him at the top of the ticket, effectively anointing her, the party does not yet have an official nominee.
The president said in a post on X just after announcing his decision to step aside from the campaign that he would “offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year”.
If the party coalesces around her, Democrats would avoid an internal battle and a chaotic open convention laying bare its ideological fissures in Chicago next month. Harris had already started vetting potential running mates, including Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro and Kentucky governor Andy Beshear, according to two people close to the vice-president.
In a nod to potential divisions over the nominee, Biden called for unity as he backed Harris, saying: “Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this.”
Will anybody challenge Harris?
This remains uncertain.
Joe Manchin, the 77-year-old centrist senator from West Virginia, was weighing on Sunday whether to challenge Harris for the Democratic nomination, according to a person familiar with his thinking. In May he changed his party registration from Democrat to independent, and he would have to switch it back to mount his bid.
California governor Gavin Newsom, who was high on the list of potential Biden successors, endorsed Harris’s bid. Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer was also expected to endorse the vice-president, according to three prominent Democratic party donors and operatives with direct knowledge of the matter.
Democratic donors will also hold sway. If they begin to endorse Harris — as George and Alex Soros have already done — politicians are more likely to support the vice-president and keep the funding flowing.
Others could mount their own challenges, but that risks a Democratic civil war that could do the party more harm than good.
What does Biden do now?
Biden’s decision has echoes of when Lyndon B Johnson shocked the nation in March 1968 by pulling out of the presidential race saying the presidency must not be sullied by “partisan divisions” while he focused on the contentious Vietnam war.
Though he will now be considered a lame duck, Biden is likely to follow in LBJ’s footsteps, focusing on his foreign policy agenda — primarily securing a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war and cementing support for Ukraine — and hitting the campaign trail on behalf of his successor.
What are the rules around appointing a successor?
Since Biden has dropped out ahead of his formal nomination at the Democratic National Convention next month, the party’s rules set out how his successor can be chosen.
There are 3,937 pledged delegates at the DNC, and 1,976 are needed to win the nomination. Biden has the support of 99 per cent of the pledged delegates. Now that he has dropped out, they are free to vote for whichever candidate they want, although this is very likely to be whoever the party coalesces around.
“Our delegates are prepared to take seriously their responsibility in swiftly delivering a candidate to the American people,” said Harrison
What happens to Biden’s campaign funds?
Biden shares a campaign committee with Harris, so she would retain access to its funds if she became the nominee. The committee raised $270mn in the second quarter.
If someone other than Harris succeeds Biden, his campaign would have to offer to refund the money to donors, who could then use it to contribute to a new candidate’s campaign, according to the Leadership Now Project. Federal rules cap candidate-to-candidate transfers at $2,000.
The Biden campaign could also transfer an unlimited amount to the DNC, which could then spend up to $32mn in co-ordination with the new nominee’s campaign, according to FEC rules.
Campaign experts say the transfer of any remaining funds could not be given directly to the candidate but could be spent in alignment with their campaign, much as super Pac fundraising groups work.
Additional reporting by Alex Rogers and Lauren Fedor in Washington and James Fontanella-Khan in New York
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