The prime minister is adamant that he will not be drawn on budget speculation in advance of the formal announcement in just over a fortnight.
That is the standard position that governments adopt given these are market-moving measures – and in this particular case the Budget will be the biggest political and economic moment for this government so far.
That being said, it was pretty clear from the prime minister’s interview with Breakfast that National Insurance for employers is going to rise.
In communication terms, Downing Street knows that a hare is running – they have the option of ruling increasing employer NI out, and by not doing so, they know that people will assume it is going to happen.
A similar dance has taken place on the possibility of Reeves altering the fiscal rules – the government’s own rules about how much money it can borrow and in what circumstances.
There will be a row about whether this is consistent with Labour’s manifesto or not. Either side of that argument has a reasonable case, and so there is a question for the government about trust.
But the more important question is what a national insurance increase for employers would mean for the economy, especially at the same time as the government is trying to make the UK a better environment for business investment.
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