U.S. stock futures jumped on Sunday, continuing a bullish mood from late last week, as President Donald Trump balked at a major attack on Iran.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones industrial average surged 189 points, or 0.36%. S&P 500 futures jumped 0.41%, and Nasdaq futures shot up 0.89%.
South Korea’s Kospi index, which has been a bellwether for global stocks lately, soared 18% on Friday, marking its biggest single-day jump on record.
That could signal Korean investors are dipping their toes back in the water, following a brutal selloff last month that prompted authorities to rein in the massive leverage that fueled wild swings earlier.
Meanwhile, U.S. oil prices tumbled 4.5% to $80.85 a barrel, and Brent crude dived 4.6% to $83.90 on hopes for a deal that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 2.7 basis points to 4.718%.
In what has become a familiar pattern in the Iran war, Trump again threatened a massive attack then pulled back from the brink late Saturday. But while he attributed his latest reversal to U.S. allies pleading with him to give diplomacy another chance, experts also see signs Iran is gaining the upper hand.
That’s as Tehran has used its proxies to expand the war across the region, most notably Houthis rebels threatening ships in the Red Sea that are trying to use the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, Iran has warned its Persian Gulf neighbors they will be targets in the event of a renewed bombardment after demonstrating that its long-range weapons can evade U.S. air defenses.
“Last night’s events underscore a reality that is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore: for now, Iran appears to hold the strategic advantage in deterrence,” Dennis Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official who specialized in Iran, posted on X.
Meanwhile, Wall Street is also looking ahead to labor market data in the coming week amid doubts about the Federal Reserve’s willingness to rein in inflation.
ADP’s private payrolls report comes out of Wednesday, and the Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims tally follows on Thursday. Then on Friday, the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report is due, and analysts expect a gain of 85,000 with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.3% from 4.2%.
The numbers come after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh set off a central bank “credibility shock” last week, when he continued to offer zero forward guidance while also suggesting alternative data and market tools could be used to fight inflation.
According to economists at Bank of America, the remarks were so dovish that they will likely force a hawkish outcome, meaning other members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee must pick up the pieces.
A major test will come with Friday’s payroll data. Fresh signs that the job market remains robust could fuel more worries about inflation. BofA pointed to the bond yield curve as an indicator of the central bank’s perceived commitment to price stability.
“Flattening of the curve would mean markets still believe the Fed will do what it takes to meet its mandate,” economists said. “But if the curve were to steepen on strong jobs/inflation data, that would indicate the Fed is behind the curve, raising more serious questions about its credibility.”
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