Back in the realm of Mexico’s complex relationship with its northern neighbour, President Sheinbaum faces two very different prospective partners in Washington – either the first female president of the US in Kamala Harris or a second Trump presidency.
Whoever wins in November, there are some tricky cross-border issues to address, whether on trade or undocumented immigration, the illegal traffic of guns into Mexico, or fentanyl into the US.
Furthermore, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) free trade deal is up for renegotiation in 2026, with everything from minor tweaks to major rewrites possible.
USMCA was introduced in 2020, when it replaced the previous North American Free Trade Agreement between the three countries.
Sheinbaum also has to keep an eye on the peso. In the days after her election victory in June, the currency tumbled against the dollar.
This was largely in response to a decision by the outgoing president to press ahead with a wholesale reform of the country’s judicial system under which all 7,000 judges and magistrates in Mexico will be chosen by popular vote. The plan is also supported by Sheinbaum.
Washington’s disapproval of the measure, as publicly expressed by the US Ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, suggested it could complicate, even jeopardise, parts of the USMCA renegotiation. Relations between Ambassador Salazar and the new administration are already notably frostier.
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