Navigating the macro factors influencing health benefits

Employers need more help than ever with health benefits and other forms of risk management this year due to an increasingly complex landscape.

John Doyle, the chief executive officer at Marsh, gave that assessment last week during a fourth-quarter earnings call.

Doyle said a global increase in healthcare costs is just one of the challenges facing business executives.

See also: Marsh McLennan CEO sees U.S. economy hampered by healthcare costs

“This is my 40th year in the business world, and I’ve never seen such a complex environment for our clients,” Doyle said. “We are not facing one global crisis. We are in an era of polycrises: ground wars, trade wars, culture wars, social unrest, AI disruption and extreme weather.”

But “there is also opportunity in complexity,” if clients have the right advisors, Doyle said.

Where are healthcare costs headed?

Marsh is expecting healthcare costs to increase about 7% in the United States, and that employers in other regions in the world will “experience high-single to low double-digit increases,” Doyle said.

Doyle and other CEOs who talked about their companies’ latest results disagreed about the state of employment.

“The job market is soft,” Doyle said. “At least, many labor markets are soft.”

But Jonas Prising, the chairman and CEO of Manpower, a staffing company with operations around the world, expressed more optimism about U.S. employment levels.

“I would say the labor market is stabilizing,” Prising said.

If current trends continue, this could be a good year for business clients, he added.

“We are clearly living in a turbulent environment,” Prising said. “But I have to say, from what we’re seeing from our clients and from our business at this point, this is not impacting our business. If anything, employers are becoming more confident about the future. Companies at some point have to decide to manage through it and get on with the business of doing business. And that’s what we’re seeing, I think, in a lot of our countries.”

Former White House staffer: A look ahead to the ’26 midterms

Peter Orszag—a former White House budget director who now serves as the chairman and CEO of investment bank Lazard—reported that some observers wonder what will happen if Democrats get control of the U.S. House in the November 2026 midterm elections and resist Trump administration proposals.

“I do not anticipate any material change in the environment from the midterms,” Orszag said during Lazard’s earnings call. “The back half of a [presidential] administration typically does not involve any big legislation.”

Even if the Republicans keep control over the White House, the Senate and the House, they are unlikely to pass large new pieces of legislation, Orszag said.

“What may happen if the House does flip is that there will be a lot of hearings,” Orszag said. “There will be a lot of subpoenas, a lot of tension between the legislative branch and the executive branch over executive privilege and so on. That will all be a lot of noise, but I don’t think it has any direct corporate impact.”