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The Nobel Peace Prize organisers are investigating a potential leak after online betting surged in favour of Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado just hours before she was announced as this year’s winner.
Machado was polling at about 3.7 per cent on Polymarket, one of the world’s largest prediction markets, until just after midnight Oslo time on Friday.
But her odds jumped within minutes to 31.5 per cent and then 73.5 per cent despite not having been tipped as a favourite neither by experts nor the media ahead of the prize announcement at 11am.
A big move came after a new user on Polymarket, called 6741, placed a $1,500 bet in favour of Machado just after midnight at the same time as betting $1,085 against one of the favourites, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, according to the website’s data.
Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market which, much like a stock market, reflects the behaviour of traders, not the calculations of a bookmaker.
The Nobel Institute confirmed reports in Norwegian media that it was investigating the matter.
The five-person committee — made up of a human rights advocate, foreign policy expert and three former ministers all from Norway — made its final decision on Monday and telephoned Machado minutes before Friday’s announcement.
Experts had predicted organisations such as Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms and various UN bodies could be the winner. US President Donald Trump’s persistent claims to a Nobel Peace Prize had led him to be a favourite among many bookmakers.
On late Thursday evening, Yulia Navalnaya, widow of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, was the favourite on Polymarket with about 9 per cent, while Trump was polling at 4.4 per cent. Machado’s support on Thursday was at just 0.6 per cent chance of winning, according to Polymarket.
Polymarket’s website suggested bets for Machado added up to $2.2mn as opposed to $13.9mn for Trump and $21.4mn in total.
Polymarket and Kalshi, the world’s two largest prediction markets, both tipped Trump as the favourite in last year’s US presidential election by significantly larger margins than polling suggested.
The companies, which saw a significant uptick in trading following the election, have established ties with the new US administration, since Donald Trump Jr is a strategic adviser to Kalshi and an investor in Polymarket.
There have been instances in previous decades of potential leaks when Norwegian broadcasters have announced the winners before the ceremony, including former US President Barack Obama’s victory and that of the EU, but that practice has ended in recent years.
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