Over the past several years, organizations of all sizes have made public pledges to hire for skills. But intention and execution are turning out to be very different things.
New research out this month from the Burning Glass Institute and OneTen, a nonprofit focused on expanding opportunity for workers without four-year degrees, quantifies the gap. Among more than 1,000 large U.S. employers, simply removing degree requirements from job postings was associated with only a two-percentage-point increase in the share of hires with nondegree credentials. And the researchers found little correlation between advertising for credentials and actually hiring workers who hold them.
The report introduces a term worth adding to the HR vocabulary: credential fluency. Defined as the organizational ability to identify and validate nondegree credentials as meaningful signals of job-relevant skills, it describes something more operational than a hiring philosophy. It requires training talent acquisition teams, updating screening systems and building consistent criteria for evaluating credentials that don’t come with the familiar shorthand of a degree from a recognized institution.
Not all credentials are equal
Understanding which credentials to recognize matters as much as recognizing them at all. A February 2026 Brookings Institution analysis of more than 156 million U.S. resumes found that the returns on nondegree credentials depend almost entirely on job relevance, how closely a credential maps to the occupation in which a worker holds it.
The study found that a worker’s first job-relevant credential is associated with a 3.8% wage premium, more than double the 1.8% premium for a credential that doesn’t align to their role. So, “stacking” irrelevant badges adds nothing. And the type of credential matters too. Certifications that require proctored exams, third-party validation and periodic renewal showed strong and accumulating returns, while badges and micro credentials tended to generate a one-time signal with little additional value.
For HR leaders building internal learning programs or evaluating candidates, this distinction carries real weight. A broad tuition-benefit policy that funds any credential an employee wants is not the same as a targeted investment in credentials that build demonstrably job-relevant skills. The research suggests that precision is what moves the needle.
“For companies, the proliferation of nondegree credentials promises a flexible, skills-first future responsive to their needs,” wrote the authors of the Brookings Institution. “But for workers, the glut of NDCs presents a chaotic gamble.”
Who benefits most, and who’s being left behind
The equity dimension of credential recognition is hard to ignore. Workers without a bachelor’s degree see a 6.8% wage premium from their first job-relevant credential, nearly double the return for college graduates. Early-career workers see similarly outsized gains. These are the populations for whom credential-based pathways represent the clearest route to economic mobility.
Yet, they’re also the workers least likely to hold credentials and most likely to be paying for them out of pocket. October 2025 survey data from the Pew Charitable Trusts found that 51% of vocational certificate earners and 71% of professional license holders covered their costs themselves. Only 15% of certificate earners and 24% of license holders received any employer financial support.
The through-line across these research sources is that skills-based hiring requires more than a policy change. It requires employers to build systems that can do three things:
- Identify which credentials signal real, job-relevant capability
- Verify and consistently apply that knowledge in hiring decisions
- Invest in the pathways that produce credentialed workers
“The NDC marketplace has exploded, but accountability has not kept pace,” according to the Brookings Institution researchers. ”With accountability, NDCs could democratize access to skill development, offering faster and more affordable routes to good jobs, particularly for workers left out of traditional higher education.”
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