Powell ‘holds the key’ to the next Fed rate move as divided policymakers will likely fail to reach a consensus again, JPMorgan says

In his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, Chairman Jerome Powell opened the door to a rate cut at the central bank’s meeting in September after months of maintaining a more hawkish stance, stoking a furious rally on Wall Street.

His emphasis on growing risks to the labor market coupled with a more muted warning on the inflationary impact of tariffs marked a shift in his tone. But not everyone on the Federal Open Market Committee sounded as dovish, including Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid.

That sets up another FOMC meeting with dissenting votes, after two policymakers voted to lower rates last time, going against the majority that kept rates steady.

While Powell counts as one vote on the FOMC, he carries outsized influence as the chairman and could prove to be decisive in another split vote.

“Guidance from a range of Fed speakers was mixed this week, while the July minutes struck a modestly hawkish tone,” JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman wrote in a note on Friday. “A consensus decision in September looks unlikely, and it is Chair Powell who holds the key to the meeting’s outcome.”

Another contested meeting would mark further deviation from the Fed’s traditional consensus-driven, decision-making process, which typically results in unanimous votes.

But future meetings could see continued division as hawks point to inflation still running above the Fed’s 2% target and other economic data signaling resilience. Indeed, the composition of the Fed is in flux, potentially leading to more push and pull among policymakers.

Stephen Miran, who has previously blasted the Fed’s consensus-based approach, is set to join the board of governors and add to the dovish votes. Meanwhile, Powell’s term as chair expires in May, and President Donald Trump has threatened to fire Governor Lisa Cook if she doesn’t resign.

Outlook for Fed rate cut cycle

And even if the Fed lowers rates next month, the pace of future cuts isn’t clear, providing more fodder for debate at the central bank as Trump-appointed officials push for dovish policy.

Some Wall Street analysts don’t see an aggressive easing cycle on the horizon, and Powell indicated any rate cuts would happen in a cautious manner.

“This message may not be welcomed by an administration looking for immediate aggressive easing,” JPMorgan said.

Capital Economics chief markets economist John Higgins said in a note Friday that Powell “poured three cups of cold water” on hopes for a major loosening of Fed policy.

They include indications that the current rate is only modestly restrictive, that the neutral level may be higher than in the 2010s, and that a revised policy framework would return to a more symmetric approach to upside and downside inflation risks.

Similarly, Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said a rate cut in September would be more akin to an “insurance” move as Powell has previously vowed not to be late on labor market signals.

In fact, his stance veers away from others at the Fed as he puts greater emphasis on the employment side of the dual mandate while tariffs are expected to cause a short-lived bump in inflation.

“Powell appears to be setting the stage, assuming the economy performs as he expects and risks do not change appreciably, for a gradual approach to normalizing interest rates,” Sweet said in a note. “In other words, one cut at every other remaining meeting this year.”