UK retail sales rose at the fastest pace for nearly four years in the first few months of the year, after warmer weather helped boost sales in March.
Between January and March, sales volumes were up 1.6% from the previous three months, according to the Office for National Statistics, which was the biggest rise since July 2021.
March’s sunny weather provided a boost for garden centres, and demand for clothing and DIY goods also improved. However, the ONS said food sales volumes fell, particularly at supermarkets.
Analysts also warned that sales could weaken in the months ahead after a separate survey suggested consumer confidence fell in April.
Sales volumes in March rose 0.4%, an unexpectedly strong figure after analysts had predicted a 0.4% fall.
The sunny weather last month helped sales at garden centres, which reported “robust trading”, the ONS said.
Sales at non-food stores rose by 1.7% over the month, but this was partly offset by food store sales volumes falling 1.3%.
However, analysts warned that sales may not grow as quickly in the months ahead after a survey suggested there had been a sharp drop in consumer confidence in April.
Market research firm GfK said confidence fell this month to its lowest level since November 2023, as people faced rising bills and became more pessimistic about the prospects for the economy.
“Consumers have not only been grappling with multiple April cost increases in the form of utilities, council tax, stamp duty, and road tax, but they are also hearing dire warnings of renewed high inflation on the back of the Trump tariffs,” said Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK.
Alex Kerr, UK economist at Capital Economics, said the sales performance in March “may be as bright as it gets”.
“March’s rise was largely due to unusually sunny weather and the drop in consumer confidence in April after the US tariff chaos suggests that households may start to spend more cautiously in the coming months,” he said.
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