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Russia has increased its production of shells so much it is “in effect, preparing for its next war”, Estonia’s spy service has warned, as the Kremlin’s grinding conflict with Ukraine closes in on its fourth anniversary.
In 2025, Russian factories produced more than 7mn shells, mortar rounds and rockets, according to Estonian estimates, up from 4.5mn in 2024.
The figure amounts to a 17-fold increase in production since the war in Ukraine began. Most of the recent output growth has come from the construction of entirely new production facilities.
Thanks to additional sizeable imports of ammunition from North Korea — which accounted for as much as half of all the ordnance fired by Russia in Ukraine in the past six months — Russia’s armed forces have made significant progress in restocking depleted ammunition reserves.
“For the Kremlin, maintaining such reserves is almost certainly a critical element of planning for potential future conflicts,” Estonian intelligence service Välisluureamet (VLA) wrote in its annual report, which was made public on Tuesday.
Despite its relatively small size, the Estonian agency is widely regarded as being one of the most capable collectors of classified information on Russia, which the Baltic state views as its main strategic adversary.
Russia’s gains in war production have come despite a rapidly weakening economy and amid growing concern at home over the conflict’s social impact.
There are also signs that the Kremlin is struggling to recruit soldiers to fight and is increasingly turning to criminals, mercenaries and even retirees to swell its ranks.
Casualty numbers for Russia’s armed forces continue to be extremely high — as many as 10 times those suffered by Ukraine, according to some western military estimates.
Kaupo Rosin, Estonia’s spy chief, said his officers did not believe that Putin intends to attack Nato in the near future, but warned that the Kremlin still believes itself to be locked in an existential struggle with the alliance.
Faced with no prospect of a breakthrough on the battlefield, Russia in recent months has shifted its focus to intelligence and influence operations, in particular efforts to widen the rift between the US and European countries, the VLA said.
The rounds of “peace talks” between Washington and Moscow over Ukraine were being exploited by the Kremlin, its report states.
“Russia’s state institutions have been instructed by the Kremlin to project openness and willingness to co-operate with the United States,” the VLA said, adding that this was “a ruse”.
One lure has been an array of economic and business opportunities the Kremlin has sought to peddle to the White House.
“In the economic sphere, Russia eagerly offers nominal co-operation and hopes to benefit in two ways: first, by binding US and Russian interests more closely together; second, by widening what Moscow perceives as existing rifts between the US and Europe,” the Estonian service said.
In the wake of US President Donald Trump’s hostile bid towards Greenland, Estonian intelligence said sources also indicated that Russia was even considering whether it might try and induce Washington into some kind of Arctic pact that would, at least at face value, freeze China out of the region.
“Russia is setting long-term operational objectives in its war against Ukraine. This confirms that the recent uptick in peace-talk rhetoric is merely a tactic to buy time,” the VLA report concluded.
“Moscow has no intention of ending the war until its objectives are achieved or the conditions are favourable for doing so.”
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